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Informist, Friday, Jun. 12, 2026

MUMBAI – The US Department of Agriculture has revised the estimates of wheat supply in the marketing year 2026-27 slightly upwards to 1.10 billion tonnes from 1.098 billion tonnes pegged in May. The department has also raised its estimates for production, consumption, trade, and ending stocks from the previous month, it said in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report for June. 

The department has raised its forecast for global wheat supply largely due to a rise in production in Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine, which is partly offset by lower production in Australia and Pakistan. Global production of wheat is pegged at 820.06 million tonnes in June, up from 819.06 million tonnes seen in May, the department said.

Wheat production in Russia is forecast 2.0 million tonnes higher at 88.0 million tonnes "as near-ideal weather conditions and above-average rainfall support a higher yield forecast for winter wheat despite a reduction in spring wheat harvested area," the department said. For Turkey, the estimates of wheat output have been raised by 1.50 million tonnes to a record 22.50 million tonnes, while for Ukraine, it is raised by 500,000 tonnes to 23.50 million tonnes due to favourable spring weather, the department said. "In Australia, production is lowered 2.0 million tons to 28.0 million on lower harvested area as indicated by the latest ABARES (Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences) quarterly report," it said. 

Global wheat consumption is projected at 824.59 million tonnes, up from 823.23 million tonnes pegged in May, largely due to higher feed and residual use in Russia, the department said. World trade of wheat is pegged higher at 211.95 million tonnes from 211.70 million tonnes in the previous month due to a rise in exports from Ukraine and other countries, which is partially offset by lower exports from Australia, it said. 

The department has estimated ending stocks for 2026-27 to rise marginally to 275.42 million tonnes from 275.04 million tonnes. The rise is due to higher ending stocks in Egypt and Turkey, which were partially offset by lower stocks in Ukraine, Australia, Russia, and the US, it said.

For India, the department has projected the country's wheat output at 121 million tonnes in 2026-27, unchanged from the previous month's view. Its forecast for domestic consumption is also held steady at 111.10 million tonnes, while ending stocks are also unchanged at 30.0 million tonnes from the previous month.

RICE 

Global rice supply in 2026-27 is projected at 733.98 million tonnes, down from 734.12 million tonnes forecast in May due to a decline in beginning stocks in Iraq and Vietnam, the department said. For 2026–27, the department estimates a slight rise in ending stocks and a marginal drop in consumption, while the trade projections are left unchanged. 

The department has left the estimates of global rice production in 2026-27 unchanged at 537.82 million tonnes. However, for 2025-26, the department has raised its output forecast by 1.9 million tonnes to 544.74 million tonnes mainly due to estimates of higher production in India, where the government, in its third advance estimate, has pegged output at a record 154.0 million tonnes, the department said. 

Global consumption of rice is revised lower to 541.18 million tonnes from 541.39 million tonnes seen in May due to a decline in Iraq and Vietnam, the department said. Global rice trade is forecast at a record 63.01 million tonnes, unchanged from the forecast in the previous month. In 2026-27, global ending stocks are pegged at 192.81 million tonnes, higher than 192.74 million tonnes estimated last month due to higher stocks in Cambodia, which is mostly offset by reductions in Bangladesh and other countries, it said.

For India, the department has forecast rice production in 2026–27 at 150.0 million tonnes, unchanged from its previous month's estimate. The estimates for the country's rice consumption are also left unchanged at 128.0 million tonnes, while ending stocks are also held steady at 50.0 million tonnes.  End

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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