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Informist, Tuesday, Jun. 2, 2026

 

MUMBAI – The equatorial Pacific Ocean is rapidly transitioning to El Nino conditions from neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions, private weather forecasting agency Skymet said. A full-blown El Nino may evolve faster and earlier-than-expected based on previous timelines, the weather agency said. 

 

A further sharp rise in warming of both surface and sub-surface levels of the tropical Pacific Ocean could quicken the strengthening of El Nino, raising the likelihood of an all-pervasive event this year, striking many parts of the world with extreme temperature anomalies. The overwhelming model projections of the phenomenon are raising the risk of the Indian monsoon beyond what was assessed earlier, the weather agency said.

 

The extent of impact of the El Nino on the Indian monsoon depends on the location of the event's warming, the weather agency said. If the warming takes place farther east in the Pacific Ocean, it could have less effect on the southwest monsoon. Monsoon is worse hit when El Nino warming is observed over the Central Pacific Ocean and the cooling occurs on either side over the east and west Pacific Ocean. This year, El Nino is likely to be a basin-wide event, which will impact monsoon in India, Indonesia, and West Africa. 

 

It is premature to predict the strength of the upcoming El Nino, the weather agency said. Typically, El Nino or La Nina events reach their maximum strength during Oct-Feb. 

 

The emergence and development of El Nino is likely to pick up at a faster rate, and the chances of monsoon being adversely affected are becoming higher, the weather agency said. Historically, El Nino has impacted the monsoon on two-thirds of the occasions it has occurred. It has a past record of affecting the northern and central parts of India severely while being comparatively less impactful in the southern and northeastern parts of the country, the agency said.  End

 

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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