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Informist, Tuesday, Jun. 2, 2026

 

MUMBAI – Unusually warm ocean waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean are fuelling the development of El Nino conditions, increasing the risk of extreme weather in the coming months, the World Meteorological Organisation said in its latest El Nino/La Nina update on Tuesday. According to the organisation's estimates, chances of an El Nino event in Jun-Aug are at 80%, and probabilities of such an event to continue till at least November stand near or above 90%. Though some uncertainty remains about the strength of the event, most international climate models suggest it would be at least moderate, and possibly strong, the organisation said.

 

In late April to mid-May, the sea surface temperature in the central-eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean was approaching El Nino thresholds. These increasing surface anomalies are being fed by unusually warm subsurface conditions across the tropical Pacific Ocean with temperatures exceeding 6 degrees Celsius above the average and providing a substantial reservoir of heat, which is contributing to the observed surface warming.   

 

Above-normal temperatures are expected across the globe from June to August, the organisation said. There is an "enhanced" probability for below-normal rainfall with high model consistency over the Indian subcontinent, it said.

 

The effects of each El Nino event vary depending on the intensity, duration, time of year when it develops, and also how it interacts with other climate variability modes, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole, the organisation said. The strength of the event is highly significant — whether it is classed as weak, moderate, strong or very strong. Even a moderate El Nino makes some weather and climate extremes more likely. However, the organisation does not use the term "super El Nino" because it is not part of standardised operational classifications, it said.
 
There is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Nino events. However, it can amplify associated impacts because a warmer ocean and atmosphere increase the availability of energy and moisture for extreme weather events such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall.
 
The Indian Ocean Dipole remains neutral, the organisation said. The Indian Ocean is forecast to experience development of the positive phase, peaking concurrently with the intensifying Pacific El Nino, it said. Starting from near-neutral conditions in May, the mean for the Indian Ocean Dipole seasonal average rises to approximately 0.4 degrees Celsius in Jun-Aug. 

 

The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole leads to less rainfall in India, while a positive index leads to more rainfall, and a neutral phase signals no significant change in precipitation.

 

"We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Nino event — which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean. The most recent El Nino, in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record, and it played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024," the organisation said, quoting its Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.

 

The organisation's El Nino/La Nina updates are based on a consensus of models from the World Meteorological Organisation's Global Producing Centres, experts from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and climate prediction centres around the world and are produced through a collaborative effort between the organisation and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society.  End

 

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

 

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