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Informist, Monday, Jun. 1, 2026

 

--IMD official: Southwest monsoon onset delayed, will not hit Kerala Mon 

--CONTEXT: Normal date of onset of southwest monsoon in Kerala is Jun 1 

--Skymet official: See monsoon onset in Kerala Thu-Fri 

 

By Shreya Shetty

 

MUMBAI – The onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala is delayed beyond its normal date as the monsoon trough remains stalled at its current position, according to an official from the India Meteorological Department. Kerala is the first point of the monsoon's advancement over the Indian mainland and the normal date of onset over the state is Jun. 1. Monsoon onset over Kerala is now expected around Thursday or Friday, said Mahesh Palawat, vice-president of the Department of Meteorology and Climate Change at private weather forecasting agency Skymet. 

 

"Since it (monsoon trough) is stalled, it is counted as a delay," the official from the Indian weather department said, adding, "IMD (India Meteorological Department) might give a tentative date (of onset over Kerala) today (Monday) evening."

 

The monsoon trough remains in the same position as it was on Saturday, according to the weather department's daily forecast on Sunday. Conditions are favourable for its onset over more parts of the Arabian Sea, most parts of the Bay of Bengal, and some parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu in the next three to four days, the department said.

 

Unfavourable weather conditions have kept the monsoon trough from advancing over the country's mainland, Palawat said. "There is a cyclonic circulation over the Arabian Sea, and another one over the Bay of Bengal at around five to eight kilometres above the mean sea level, which are not favourable for onset conditions," he said. The movement of the westerlies is also not favouring the onset of monsoon over Kerala on Monday, he said.

 

"For monsoon to onset, certain conditions should be met, such as 2.5 millimetres of rainfall in 60% of the stations in Kerala, Karnataka, and Lakshadweep, which means nine of these stations should get rainfall for two consecutive days--that has not happened," Palawat said. 

 

At present, the Indian weather department uses criteria that were adopted in 2016 for declaring the onset of the monsoon over Kerala, which is based on the daily rainfall at 14 stations in Kerala and the neighbouring area, along with wind-field and outgoing long-wave radiation over the southeast Arabian Sea. If after May 10, around 60% of the 14 designated stations--Minicoy and Amini in Lakshadweep, Thiruvananthapuram, Punalur, Kollam, Allapuzha, Kottayam, Kochi, Thrissur, Kozhikode, Thalassery, and Kannur in Kerala, and Kudulu and Mangalore in Karnataka--report rainfall of 2.5 millimetres or more for two consecutive days, the onset over Kerala will be declared on the second day, provided the wind-field and outgoing long-wave radiation conditions are met.

 

The outgoing long-wave radiation measures the amount of terrestrial radiation released into space and, by extension, the amount of cloud cover and water vapour that intercepts that radiation in the atmosphere. The criteria emphasise the sharp increase in rainfall over Kerala along with the setting up of large-scale monsoon flow and extension of westerlies up to 600 hectopascal. 

 

Monsoon onset over Kerala is now likely on either Thursday or Friday, Palawat said. "Once monsoon has onset, there are no chances of torrential rainfall over Kerala and other parts of the southern peninsular. It will be a normal onset," he said. The intensity and spread of rainfall may pick up over south peninsular India later, he added. 

 

Palawat clarified that the delay in monsoon onset over the country is not related to the upcoming El Nino event. "The delay in onset has nothing to do with El Nino, it is only dependent on the weather systems near and over India," he said.

 

In 2025, the southwest monsoon hit the Kerala coast on May 24, eight days ahead of its normal date of Jun. 1 and by May 29, the monsoon current covered southern and northeast India entirely, and parts of east and central India. However, after May 29, the monsoon was in a weak phase and resumed advancing only on Jun. 16. The monsoon covered entire India on Jun. 29, nine days before the normal date of Jul. 8. Normally, beginning Jun. 1, the southwest monsoon advances northwards and covers the entire country around Jul. 8.  End

 

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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