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Informist, Friday, May 29, 2026

 

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--IMD: India 2026 southwest monsoon rains seen at 90% of long-period avg 
--CONTEXT: IMD earlier saw 2026 southwest monsoon at 92% of long-period avg 
--IMD: India 2026 monsoon rain to be below normal over country as a whole 
--CONTEXT: IMD details outlook for temperature, rainfall in June 
--IMD:June rainfall seen below normal at less than 92% of long-period average 
--IMD: See above normal maximum temperature over most parts of India June 
--IMD: See central India monsoon rainfall less than 94% of long-period avg 
--IMD: See northeast India monsoon rain normal at 94-106% of long-period avg 
--IMD: See southwest monsoon onset over Kerala in the next one week 
--IMD:Neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation transitioning to El Nino currently 
--IMD: See 92% chance of El Nino conditions forming during southwest monsoon 
--IMD: Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole prevailing at present 
--IMD: Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole to continue Jun-Jul 
--IMD: Indian Ocean Dipole seen inching towards positive in Aug-Sept 
--IMD: See 84% probability of below normal rainfall Jun-Sept 
--IMD: See south peninsula monsoon rain at less than 94% of long-period avg 
--IMD: See above normal minimum temperatures over most parts of India June 
--IMD: See above normal heatwave days in most parts of India June 
 

 

MUMBAI – Rainfall in the upcoming southwest monsoon season in India is likely to be 90% of the long-period average with a model error of plus or minus 4%, indicating that below-normal rainfall is expected over the country as a whole from June to September, the India Meteorological Department said in its second stage forecast of the 2026 monsoon on Friday. The likelihood of below normal rainfall is largely attributed to the development of the El Nino weather phenomenon during the monsoon, which is expected to intensify as the season progresses, the department said. 

 

The weather bureau's forecast suggests an 84% probability of below normal rainfall during the season. In its first forecast for the season on Apr. 13, the department had pegged rainfall during the monsoon at 92% of the long-period average. The long period average of rainfall over the country during Jun-Sept is 87 centimetres, based on the data from 1971 to 2020.

 

The southwest monsoon is likely to advance over different parts of the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal, and some parts of the extreme south peninsula and northeast India, including Kerala, in the next one week, said Mrutyunjaya Mohapatra, director general of the India Meteorological Department. "Exactly on which date it will touch Kerala, that information we will provide," he said.

 

On May 15, the weather department had projected the onset of monsoon over Kerala on May 26, with a model error of plus or minus four days. The monsoon wave missed the forecast date, and is yet to hit mainland India as of Friday. However, this does not classify it as delay in the arrival of the monsoon, as the normal date of onset over Kerala is Jun. 1, Mohapatra said.

 

During the monsoon, only northeast India is expected to receive normal rainfall at 95-106% of the long-period average, the weather department said. Northwest India is likely to record below normal showers at less than 92% of the long-period average. Central and south peninsular India are also expected to receive below normal precipitation at less than 94% of the long-period average.

 

The monsoon core zone, which consists of multiple rain-fed agricultural areas in India, is expected to record below normal rainfall at 94% of the long-period average.

 

According to the weather bureau's probability forecast on spatial distribution, below normal rainfall is likely during June to September in most parts of the country, except some parts of northwest India, eastern parts of the south peninsula and the adjoining eastcentral India, some parts of northeast India and a few parts of east India. In these sparse pockets, normal to above normal rainfall is likely during the season, the bureau said.  

 

Currently, neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions are transitioning to El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the weather department said. Most international climate models indicate the development of El Nino during the monsoon, with the probability of such an event at 92% during the season, the department said. 

 

In June, El Nino is expected to be weak, after which it is likely to strengthen. In July and August, the strength of the El Nino event is likely to range between weak to moderate, and in September, it is expected to be moderate to strong, the department said. 

 

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is linked to drier and hotter weather in India, while La Nina results in more favourable rainfall.

 

According to the weather bureau's latest climate model forecast, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are prevailing currently, and such conditions are likely to continue during the monsoon. However, there are chances of the Indian Ocean Dipole inching towards a positive index during the second half of the season, which is Aug-Sept, Mohapatra said. 

 

The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole leads to less rainfall in India, while a positive index leads to more rainfall, and a neutral phase signals no significant change in precipitation. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole could abate the impact of an El Nino event. However, in the weather department's outlook for May, Mohapatra had pointed out that the impact of an El Nino event is typically more powerful than that of a positive India Ocean Dipole.

 

In June, rainfall over the country as a whole is expected to be below normal at less than 92% of the long-period average, the weather bureau said. The long-period average for the month, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is about 166.9 millimetres, the bureau said. During June, below normal rainfall is expected over most parts of the country except some parts of northwest, northeast, and eastern parts of south India, where normal to above normal showers are likely.

 

As a result of less rainfall, day and night temperatures are expected to be higher over most parts of the country in June, Mohapatra said. Above-normal maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country, except some parts of central, northwest, and east India, where normal to below-normal temperatures are seen, the bureau said. Minimum temperatures are also expected to be above normal over most parts of the country in June, with a higher probability of such temperatures in the eastern parts of south India. Some parts of northwest, central, and adjoining south peninsular India are likely to record normal to below-normal minimum temperatures during the month, the bureau said.

 

In June, above normal heatwave days are expected in parts of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, and Andhra Pradesh, the weather department said. Similar weather conditions are also likely in pockets of Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu. Below normal heatwave days are likely in parts of Rajasthan and Jharkhand during the month.

 

In Mar-May, which is the pre-monsoon season, rainfall was 1?ove normal at 110.5 millimetres, the weather department said. Of the four homogenous regions in the country, only northwest India recorded below-normal showers during the season, data from the department showed. Central India was the only region to receive above-normal rainfall during all three months, according to the data. 

 

The weather department will release its monthly outlook for rainfall and temperature for July in the last week of June.  End

 

Reported by Shreya Shetty and Shruti Nair

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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