More Stories

Informist, Wednesday, May 27, 2026

 

MUMBAI – Forecasts about the strength of the upcoming El Nino suggest that the event could be at least moderate in strength, with a possibility of a strong event, according to various international climate models, which include that by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. A strong El Nino is likely based on the extent of warming in the central Pacific Ocean, the bureau said in its fortnightly report on Tuesday.

 

Winter in the Southern Hemisphere spans from June to September, and spring from September to December.

 

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is currently neutral, though there are signs of El Nino development. All international climate models, including the Australian bureau's, forecast further warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean in the coming months. Sea surface temperatures are likely to reach El Nino thresholds during early Southern Hemisphere winter, the bureau said. Atmospheric indicators such as trade winds, pressure, and cloud patterns in the tropical Pacific remain consistent with neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions, but are also inclining towards an El Nino state, the bureau said.

 

As of Sunday, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation index was 0.67 degrees Celsius, which is within the neutral range, the bureau said. There has been significant warming in recent weeks, with the index warming by about 0.2 degrees Celsius in the past fortnight and by 1.3 degrees Celsius since early March. Ocean surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific between (-)0.80 degrees Celsius and 0.80 degrees Celsius are considered to be neutral conditions, while sustained values below (-)0.8 degrees Celsius for at least three months are considered indicative of a La Nina event. Sustained values above 0.8 degrees Celsius are associated with an El Nino event.

 

The Madden-Julian Oscillation is in the western Pacific and forecasts suggest it is likely to strengthen and continue moving eastwards into regions in the Western Hemisphere during late May and early June. If this occurs, associated westerly wind anomalies over the western Pacific could support further warming of the tropical Pacific, reinforcing the development of El Nino, the bureau said. The Madden-Julian Oscillation is a tropical disturbance that propagates eastward around the global tropics with a cycle on the order of 30–60 days. It does not cause El Nino or La Nina, but can contribute to the speed of development and intensity of such events.

 

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is linked to drier and hotter weather in India, while La Nina results in more favourable rainfall.

 

The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently neutral, the bureau said. As of Sunday, the Indian Ocean Dipole index was (-)0.34 degrees Celsius. Forecasts of the state of Indian Ocean Dipole remain substantially uncertain, the bureau said. Most climate models indicate that the Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to remain neutral till at least early Southern Hemisphere winter, after which a positive event is likely during late winter or early spring, the bureau said. Climate model forecasts show a large variation in both the timing and strength of this event, it said.

 

The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole leads to less rainfall in India, while a positive index leads to more rainfall, and a neutral phase signals no significant change in precipitation.

 

The India Meteorological Department has forecast below normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon this year as El Nino conditions are likely to prevail in the second half of the season, from August. The weather bureau said overall rainfall in Jun-Sept is likely to be 92% of the long-period average with a modelling error of plus or minus 5%.  End

 

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.