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Informist, Friday, May 22, 2026

 

MUMBAI – The International Grains Council has estimated global food grain production in 2026-27 at 2.41 billion tonnes, unchanged from its forecast a month ago. The council has maintained its view of a 3% year-on-year fall in global food grain output in its May projections, owing to a smaller harvested area and poorer average yields. This is likely to be the first decline after four consecutive seasons of increasing output, it said.

 

Consumption of food grains is also left unchanged from April at 2.44 billion tonnes. Consumption is forecast to rise on year due to a rise in the use of wheat, maize, and barley, the council said. The council's projection of global food grain carry-over stocks in 2026-27 also remains the same at 615 million tonnes. However, global food grain trade is estimated to fall by 2 million tonnes from the April forecast to 446 million tonnes due to cuts in wheat and barley, it said.

 

For 2025-26, the council has revised the global food grain production upwards by 3 million tonnes from March to 2.48 billion tonnes. This is largely due to a further rise in maize production in Argentina, and higher production of the coarse grain in South Africa, it said. 

 

Global food grain consumption in 2025-26 is also revised upwards by 2 million tonnes to 2.43 billion tonnes, exceeding previous highs, the council said. The forecast for carry-over stocks of food grains is unchanged at 638 million tonnes. The forecast for global food grain trade for the year is raised by 3 million tonnes from the previous month to 454 million tonnes.

 

WHEAT

In 2026-27, global wheat production is revised downwards to 820 million tonnes from 821 million tonnes seen in April. Consumption of the grain during the year is forecast higher at 827 million tonnes from 825 million tonnes in the previous month. The forecast for carryover wheat stocks has been lowered by 2 million tonnes from April to 282 million tonnes.

 

For 2025-26, estimates for global wheat production are unchanged from the previous month at 845 million tonnes. Wheat consumption is revised upwards by 1 million tonnes to 820 million tonnes, while carryover stocks are projected lower by 1 million tonnes from April to 288 million tonnes, the council said.

 

MAIZE

Maize production in 2026-27 is seen at 1.30 billion tonnes, unchanged from April projection, the council said. Consumption of the coarse grain is pegged higher at 1.316 billion tonnes from 1.315 billion tonnes last month, while trade is also estimated higher at 200 million tonnes from 199 million tonnes seen in April.  

 

Maize production during 2025-26 is pegged at 1.33 billion tonnes, up from 1.32 billion tonnes seen in April, the council said. The estimate of consumption during the period is left steady at 1.31 billion tonnes, and trade is seen at 198 million tonnes, up from 196 million tonnes estimated in April.

 

RICE

The projection of global production of rice in 2026-27 is revised downwards by 3 million tonnes from the previous month to 545 million tonnes, the council said. Rice output is likely to be largely steady on year, with the rise in production in India offseting lower output elsewhere, it said. 

 

Rice consumption in 2026-27 is estimated to fall by 1 million tonnes from April to 543 million tonnes, and carry-over stocks are also forecast to fall to 195 million tonnes from 197 million tonnes projected a month ago. The projection for global trade during the same period has been raised to 62 million tonnes from 61 million tonnes. "World trade in 2027 (Jan-Dec) is predicted at a peak of 62 million tonnes, (+4%), boosted by firmer African buying," the council said.

 

Global rice output in 2025-26 is pegged 1 million tonnes higher at 545 million tonnes. Consumption and carry-over stocks are projected to rise by 1 million tonnes each from the previous month to 538 million tonnes and 194 million tonnes, respectively. Global trade unchanged at 59 million tonnes. 

 

SOYBEAN

Global soybean production in 2026-27 is pegged at a record 442 million tonnes, up from 441 million tonnes seen in April. "Global output is projected to expand by 3% year-on-year amid expectations for bigger harvests in major producers," the council said. The estimate of soybean consumption during the same period is also revised upwards to 445 million tonnes from 444 million tonnes last month.

 

Carry-over stocks of the oilseed during the period are estimated at 76 million tonnes, up from 75 million tonnes seen in April. Soybean trade for 2026–27 is revised downwards by 1 million tonnes to 190 million tonnes. "Trade (Oct-Sep) is seen rising by 2% (on-year), to 190 million tonnes, with Brazilian suppliers accounting for more than 60% of all shipment flows," the council said.

 

For 2025-26, global soybean output is estimated at a record 430 million tonnes, up by 2 million tonnes from April due to larger shipments to the Far East, the council said. Projections for carry-over stocks and trade are left unchanged from the previous month at 78 million tonnes and 187 million tonnes, respectively.  End

 

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Vandana Hingorani

 

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