Kedia Advisory sees paddy prices falling further in next 3 mos on high supply
This story was originally published at 20:41 IST on 21 May 2026
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NEW DELHI – Kedia Advisory expects paddy prices to decline further over the next three months amid abundant supply due to higher domestic production and elevated government stocks. In addition, weak exports amid increased global competition and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have dampened overall market sentiment.
Prices of paddy 1121 variety are likely to test INR 4,300–INR 4,200 per 100 kilograms on the downside, whereas strong resistance is expected above INR 4,850 in the next one to two months, Kedia said. "Continuing the bearish outlook, prices may gradually decline towards INR 4,200 followed by INR 4,100 and INR 3,960 levels over the medium term (three months)," it added.
The current paddy 1121 prices are INR 4,500 per 100 kg. In April, paddy prices fell over 6% amid disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which delayed nearly 200,000 tonnes of basmati rice shipments, Kedia Advisory said. "India's rice export value also fell 6% in April due to rising freight and insurance costs of 25–30%. However, tightening global supply expectations and renewed African demand provided partial support," it added.
India's kharif rice production for 2025-26 is estimated 1% higher on year at 12.4 million tonnes. "Rabi paddy acreage also increased 15.19% YoY, signaling abundant domestic supplies," the brokerage said. "Additionally, government stocks remain elevated at 60.4 million tonnes, raising risks of market dumping if storage capacities become critically stretched during the upcoming procurement cycle," it added. End
Reported by Afra Abubacker
Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury
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