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Informist, Thursday, May 21, 2026

 

By Shreya Shetty

 

MUMBAI – The upcoming El Nino is expected to impact both rainfall and temperatures across Maharashtra, though the risk to crops from above-normal temperatures is higher than that from lower rainfall, said Bikram Singh, director of the India Meteorological Department's regional meteorological centre, Mumbai. Most crops grown in the state are expected to withstand a shortfall in showers during the monsoon, but not the likely rise in temperatures that accompanies dry spells during the season, he told Informist in an interview.

 

"Currently, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation is neutral, and it will transition to El Nino afterwards. The temperature during the monsoon season, whenever there are dry spells, they are on the higher side," Singh said. "...that will have an impact on the crops. So, production will be affected to some extent even if you have irrigation," he said.

 

For most major agricultural crops, the yield begins to decline when temperatures cross 30 degrees Celsius, and even lower for some crops such as potato and barley, the World Meteorological Organization said in a recent report titled 'Extreme Heat and Agriculture', jointly released with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

 

The Indian weather department has forecast below-normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon this year as El Nino conditions are likely to prevail in the second half of the season, from August. The weather bureau said overall rainfall in Jun-Sept is likely to be 92% of the long-period average with a modelling error of plus or minus 5%.

 

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is linked to drier and hotter weather in India, while La Nina results in more favourable rainfall.

 

Maharashtra, just like the rest of the country, is likely to face both a shortfall in precipitation during the upcoming monsoon and a rise in temperatures, Singh said. "In terms of rainfall, for pulses we do not require much rainfall. It is paddy that needs more rainfall. So, for the replacement of paddy, one can go for pulses as it is unlikely to be affected much," he said.

 

In Maharashtra, most farmers cultivate either pulses or oilseeds. According to the government's second advance estimates, released on Mar. 10, Maharashtra is the top producer of pulses in the country, accounting for nearly 20% of the total pulses output at 4.76 million tonnes. The state is the fourth-largest producer of oilseeds in the country, with a share of more than 12% at 5.12 million tonnes. Paddy output in Maharashtra accounts for a little over 2% of the country's total production at 2.99 million tonnes.

 

Unlike water-intensive crops such as wheat and paddy, pulses and oilseeds are less reliant on rainfall and are much more drought tolerant. As such, Singh expects most crops in the state to be minimally affected by El Nino conditions in the coming months, unless temperatures soar markedly higher.

 

"In terms of temperature, every crop will be affected. All crops have a temperature threshold, and if temperatures go on the higher side, it impacts production," Singh said.

 

El NINO IN KONKAN, INTERIOR MAHARASHTRA

The impact of El Nino on different parts of Maharashtra is expected to differ due to the presence of the Western Ghats. While the effect on the Konkan coast could be relatively muted, interior parts of Maharashtra are likely to bear the brunt of it, Singh said.

 

The Konkan coast typically records higher rainfall during the monsoon compared to the rest of Maharashtra, Singh said. "It (rainfall over the Konkan coast) is typically very high for agriculture and, for other things, we do not need that high rainfall, and most of the rain goes back to the sea anyway. Even though the rain over the Konkan region will be less, it will be sufficient for all requirements," he said.

 

Mean monsoon rainfall is the highest over Konkan-Goa and the lowest over the Marathwada subdivision in Maharashtra, according to various studies. The Konkan region has hilly topography with highly drainable soils. Due to its porous nature, the water holding capacity of soil in the state is low, which causes most of the rainfall during the monsoon to drain away to the adjacent Arabian Sea.

 

"We have very high rainfall over the western coasts. So, for the requirement of agriculture, or even water body recharge, whatever occurs, will be more than sufficient," Singh said.

 

The effect of El Nino over the interior parts of Maharashtra is likely to be significantly higher, Singh said. "The normal rainfall there is not high, so less rainfall over those areas is likely. So, those parts may be affected more," he said.

 

The interior parts of Maharashtra, such as Vidarbha and Marathwada, experience extreme weather, which is characterised by notably hotter summers, more occurrences of dry spells, and sudden intense storms. This is largely due to the positioning of the Western Ghats, which prevent the region from receiving the moderating maritime influence of the Arabian Sea.

 

SUPER EL NINO

While the country is bracing for the upcoming El Nino, uncertainty about its strength persists. Reports about the variability in the strength of the event, calling it a "super" El Nino are incorrect, Singh said. "It is not correct to call the upcoming El Nino a super El Nino. We usually only talk about the strength of El Nino, whether it is severe or not," he said.

 

"WMO (World Meteorological Organization) does not use the term "super El Nino" because it is not part of standardised operational classifications," the organisation said in a report titled 'WMO: Likelihood increases of El Nino' released on Apr. 24.

 

Currently, no strength categorisation — which includes moderate, strong, and very strong — exceeds a 37% chance, showing variability in the forecast of the upcoming El Nino's strength, the Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in its latest update. A stronger El Nino does not always ensure a stronger overall impact; it only makes certain impacts more likely, the climate centre said.

 

"El Nino will onset during the monsoon season. Then towards the end of the season, El Nino will fully develop, so it will impact the later part of the monsoon. Saying 'super' El Nino is not correct," Singh said.  End

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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