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Informist, Thursday, May 21, 2026

 

By Shreya Shetty

 

MUMBAI – This year, the monsoon is likely to arrive in Mumbai around Jun. 5–6, five to six days before its normal date of Jun. 11, said Bikram Singh, director of the India Meteorological Department's regional meteorological centre, Mumbai. However, the development and intensification of a weather system into a cyclone over the Arabian Sea could delay the advancement of the monsoon over the city, he said.

 

"Let it (monsoon) settle over Kerala first on the (May) 26th, as was given by the IMD. If monsoon moves in the normal speed, it takes around 10 days for it to reach Mumbai from there (from Kerala)," Singh said. According to the weather department, the monsoon is expected to advance over Kerala around Tuesday, six days before its normal date, with a margin of error of plus or minus four days. The monsoon onset over mainland India begins from Kerala, for which the normal date is Jun. 1.

 

"So, you can say around Jun. 5 or 6 it should reach here (Mumbai) if it sets over Kerala on 26th. But the date is a little bit here and there because there is margin error of plus or minus four days, as we have given," Singh said.

 

However, the possible formation and intensification of a weather system into a cyclone in the Arabian Sea may disturb the advancement of the monsoon wave over Maharashtra and, subsequently, Mumbai, Singh said.

 

The wind pattern over the Arabian Sea is showing signs of disturbance ahead of the monsoon onset, according to private weather forecasting agency Skymet. Preliminary indications suggest the formation of a cyclonic circulation over the south-central Arabian Sea on Thursday. This is likely lead to the formation of a low pressure area on Friday, which is expected to intensify further into a depression over the west-central Arabian Sea on Saturday, the weather agency said.

 

"Whenever a (weather) system develops just before monsoon, they pull the monsoon current upwards and towards the mainland area. So, such a weather system will help in monsoon activities and not delay them," Singh said.

 

A low pressure area or a depression is a part of the southwest monsoon, and such weather systems "help" the monsoon, Singh said. Such a weather system poses a problem only if the depression strengthens further into a cyclone, which could deter a timely onset of monsoon over Mumbai, he said.

 

"If it (the weather system) goes into a cyclone or its strength intensifies to reach those levels, then there may be a little delay (in the onset of the monsoon over Mumbai) that way because it (the cyclone) will have some impact on the SST (sea surface temperatures)," Singh explained.

 

The formation of pre-monsoon cyclones causes stronger but short-lived cooling of sea surface temperatures by 5–7 degrees Celsius, according to various studies. If sea surface temperatures cool more than normal before the monsoon onset, it typically leads to delay.

 

In 2025, the southwest monsoon had hit Mumbai on May 26, much earlier than the normal onset date of Jun. 11. This was the earliest onset of monsoon over Mumbai since 2001.  End

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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