Monsoon Onset
Developing weather system over Arabian Sea may impact monsoon onset - Skymet
This story was originally published at 09:08 IST on 20 May 2026
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MUMBAI – The wind pattern over the Arabian Sea is showing signs of disturbance ahead of the monsoon onset. Preliminary indications suggest the formation of a cyclonic circulation over the south-central Arabian Sea on Thursday, and it is likely lead to the formation of a low pressure area over the same region on Friday, which is expected to intensify further into a depression over the west-central Arabian Sea on Saturday, private weather forecasting agency Skymet said. This weather system could impact the advancement of the southwest monsoon over the country, the weather agency said.
Weather systems which form over the Arabian Sea and move towards the Gulf of Aden during this time of the year are typically considered unfavourable for the advancement of monsoon, the weather agency said. If these weather systems intensify, they tend to pull away the cross-equatorial flow from the west coast of India. This inhibits the strengthening of the zonal westerly winds over the southeast Arabian Sea and the Lakshadweep region adjoining the Kerala coast, which is one of the key parameters required for the onset of monsoon, the agency said.
The developing low pressure area over the Arabian Sea is expected to induce northwesterly winds off the Kerala and Karnataka coasts, disrupting the prevailing wind patterns and surpassing rainfall activity over the region, the weather agency said. Rainfall over the interior parts of Kerala and south peninsular India could remain below the threshold required for the monsoon onset as adequate showers are unlikely over these regions between Saturday and Tuesday, the agency said. "Developments over the Arabian Sea and the resulting changes in wind patterns will need close monitoring to assess the progress of the southwest monsoon," it said. End
Reported by Shreya Shetty
Edited by Avishek Dutta
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