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Informist, Monday, May 18, 2026

 

MUMBAI – Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean during April were the second-highest on record, inching closer towards the all-time high set in 2024. This is increasing concerns about a further strengthening of the upcoming El Nino event, private weather forecasting agency Skymet said. This, along with the total disruption of the trade easterly winds in the tropics and over the equatorial Pacific region, is likely to cause a strong El Nino, the weather agency said.

 

April was the third-hottest month globally on record, with temperatures 1.43 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial benchmark, the weather agency said. The weakening of trade winds over the equatorial Pacific Ocean is likely to build up heat, strengthening the El Nino event further, it said. El Nino's impact on global temperatures is typically seen a year after the event peaks, and as such, 2027 is expected to top 2024 as the hottest year on record. 

 

As of early May, the equatorial Pacific Ocean is in a transition phase, with neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions presently prevailing but rapidly shifting towards a likely El Nino event, which is expected to develop between June and July, the weather agency said.

 

The Indian Ocean Dipole has remained neutral, which is typically seen before the onset of El Nino, the weather agency said. As of May 10, the Indian Ocean Dipole was (-)0.4 degrees Celsius. The index is likely to become positive during June and cross the positive Indian Ocean Dipole threshold of 0.4 degrees Celsius sometime late in July or in August, the weather agency said. El Nino often triggers a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which can counteract El Nino's typically drying effect on India by promoting warmer waters in the western Indian Ocean. This configuration has the potential to bring decent rains, despite fears of drought on account of El Nino, the agency said.

 

The Madden Julian Oscillation was more disorganised during the first two weeks of May, as other modes of variability interfered with eastward progress of enhanced convection over the Indian Ocean. The Madden Julian Oscillation signal was nearly stalled, and the forecasts depict eastward progression, albeit with a fairly weak amplitude as the pulse crosses the Maritime Continent.

 

Many international climate models forecast a re-amplification of the signal as it crosses the Pacific during late May or early June, the weather agency said. Such a signal will favour an earlier-than-normal onset of southwest monsoon over the mainland, the weather agency said.

 

The Madden-Julian Oscillation is a tropical disturbance that propagates eastward around the global tropics with a cycle on the order of 30–60 days. It does not cause El Nino or La Nina, but can contribute to the speed of development and intensity of such events.  End

 

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Vandana Hingorani

 

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