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Informist, Monday, May 18, 2026

 

MUMBAI – The APEC Climate Center's El Nino-Southern Oscillation outlook is in the 'El Nino' alert, which is issued when such an event is nearly developed and expected to persist in the next three months, the climate centre said in its forecast for June to November. The probability of a strong El Nino event in Jun-Aug stands at 77.9%, and chances increase further throughout the forecast period, according to the climate centre. Chances of a strong El Nino are the highest during Sept-Nov, with the probability exceeding 90%, it said.

 

Positive sea surface temperatures are expected along the equator during Jun-Nov, which is a clear indication of a developing El Nino, the climate centre said. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation index is expected to be 1.34 degrees Celsius during June, and it is likely to increase to up to 2.78 degrees Celsius by November, it said. For El Nino to emerge, temperatures should be at or above 0.5 degrees Celsius in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean should meet or rise above the threshold of 0.5 degrees Celsius. This threshold must persist for at least five consecutive, overlapping three-month periods, and must be accompanied by corresponding changes in tropical atmospheric circulation.

 

El Nino is most probable with a 99% chance during the entire forecast period, the climate centre said. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is the oscillation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino-Southern Oscillation-neutral conditions generally mean near average rainfall conditions for India, with the monsoon performing close to its historical average. La Nina is usually associated with good rainfall over India, while El Nino is associated with a drier climate and drought conditions.

 

In Jun-Aug, there is an enhanced probability of below normal rainfall in India, with higher chances of below-normal showers in parts of northwest, west, and south peninsular India, according to the climate centre. In Sept-Nov, the enhanced probability of below normal rainfall is seen persisting across the Indian subcontinent, with a higher chance of lower showers on the western coasts and north-eastern parts of the south peninsular India. 

 

This suggests below normal rainfall during the entirety of the southwest monsoon, which spans from June to September. Precipitation is likely to remain below normal during the first half of the northeast monsoon as well, which begins in October.

 

During Jun-Aug, the climate centre sees a strongly enhanced probability of above-normal temperatures in most parts of India, except a few pockets of east India and northwest India. In Sept-Nov, a strongly enhanced probability of above-normal temperatures is expected across India.

 

The India Meteorological Department has forecast below normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon this year as El Nino conditions are likely to prevail in the second half of the season, from August. The weather bureau said overall rainfall in Jun-Sept is likely to be 92% of the long-period average with a modelling error of plus or minus 5%.  End

 

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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