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Informist, Friday, May 15, 2026

 

By Afra Abubacker

 

NEW DELHI – Futures contracts of gold fell for the second day on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India and COMEX Friday as a firm dollar and US Treasury yields weighed on market sentiment. Rising crude oil prices, following reports of a vessel being seized, reinforced fears of sticky inflation and weighed on bullion.
 

At 1809 IST, the most active June contract of GOLD was down 2% at INR 159,070 per 10 grams on the MCX. The same-month contract on COMEX was down 3% at $4,553.4 per ounce. The most active July SILVER contract on the MCX was down 6% at INR 281,157 per kilogram. The same-month contract on COMEX was down 8.5% at $78.14 per ounce.

 

Silver prices declined sharply on forecasts of reduced demand and a shrinking supply deficit. Swiss bank UBS has revised downwards its estimate for the silver supply gap to 60-70 million tonnes in 2026, significantly down from 300 million tonnes.

 

"This decline results from two opposing trends. On the supply side, the bank sees a more favorable environment and expects global mine production to rise to around 850 million ounces of silver by 2026," Gold Invest's Bjorn Junker said in a note. At the same time, the bank anticipates an aggregate loss in demand of about 50 million ounces as high silver prices are putting the brakes on consumption, he added. 
 

"Gold prices edged lower as rising oil prices, a stronger dollar, and US Treasury yields, weighed on sentiment following reports of a vessel seizure and another ship sinking," Manav Modi, commodities analyst, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd., said in a note. 

 

Amid rising crude oil prices, about 99.8% traders expect the US Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at its June meeting, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield climbed to a one-year high of 4.57%, up from 4.45% at 1700 IST Thursday, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold. Meanwhile, crude oil prices rose further Friday as attacks on one ship and the seizure of another raised concerns over supply and dimmed hopes of the Fed easing its monetary policy in the near term.

 

"Markets also reacted to India's decision to raise gold and silver import duties to nearly 15% from around 6%, a move aimed at reducing bullion imports and supporting forex reserves, but one that could hurt jewelry demand in one of the world's largest consuming nations," Motilal Oswal's Modi said.

 

Outlook for the coming week:

--MCX gold seen at INR 152,000–INR 167,000 per 10 grams

--COMEX gold seen at $4,400–$4,900 an ounce

--MCX silver seen at INR 265,000-INR 300,000 per kg

--COMEX silver seen at $71–$90 an ounce

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 95.96

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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