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Informist, Friday, May 15, 2026

 

MUMBAI – The upcoming El Nino is likely to develop in June, and persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter, the Climate Prediction Centre of the US' National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in a report on Thursday. The chances of an El Nino event in May-Jul stand at 82%. The event is likely to persist through winter, with the probability increasing to 96% in Dec-Feb, the climate centre said. 

 

The climate centre's El Nino-Southern Oscillation alert system is currently in "El Nino Watch," suggesting that conditions are favourable for the development of an El Nino event within the next six months. While the centre's climate models' confidence in the development of El Nino has increased since April, there is some uncertainty about the peak strength of the event. Currently, no strength categorisation -- which includes moderate, strong, and very strong -- exceed a 37% chance, showing variability in the forecast of the upcoming El Nino's strength, the climate centre said. 

 

The strongest El Nino events on record are characterised by significant ocean-atmosphere coupling through the summer, and it remains to be seen whether such coupling occurs in 2026, the climate centre said. Ocean-atmosphere coupling refers to the interconnected relationship between the ocean's surface temperatures and circulation patterns, and the atmosphere above it. Changes in ocean temperature can lead to shifts in atmospheric conditions, which in turn can alter wind patterns and further affect ocean temperatures. This dynamic interaction can have significant implications for weather patterns globally, with notable examples being the El Nino and La Nina cycles.

 

A stronger El Nino does not always ensure a stronger impact, the climate centre said. The strength of the event can only make certain impacts more likely, it explained. 

 

In the past month, neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions continued, as indicated by the near-average sea surface temperatures in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean. The latest El Nino-Southern Oscillation index is 0.4 degrees Celsius, showing an increase for the sixth consecutive month, the climate centre said. 

 

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is linked to drier and hotter weather in India, while La Nina results in more favourable rainfall.

 

The India Meteorological Department has forecast below normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon this year as El Nino conditions are likely to prevail in the second half of the season, from August. The weather bureau said overall rainfall in Jun-Sept is likely to be 92% of the long-period average with a modelling error of plus or minus 5%.  End

 

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Vandana Hingorani

 

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