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Informist, Thursday, May 14, 2026

 

MUMBAI – Expressing cautious optimism about rice output in the monsoon crop season in India, Vietnam and Thailand, along with weaker harvest prospects in several major producers, including the US, Thailand, Pakistan and Brazil, Fitch Solutions company BMI expects global rice output in the 2025-26 season to decline 0.1% on year to 540.1 million tonnes.

 

The USDA has estimated global rice output in 2025-26 at 542.8 million tonnes, as per a report released Tuesday.

 

In India, BMI sees stable near-term weather conditions and sufficient fertiliser availability, according to a note issued Wednesday.

 

"We maintain our view that optimism surrounding global rice production, which weighed on prices throughout 2025, will ease through 2026. We expect global rice production to contract modestly by 0.1% year on year to 540.1 million tonnes in the 2025-26 season," it said, adding that with 2026-27 plantings set to begin over the coming weeks across key producing regions, forward-looking supply expectations are becoming an increasingly important price driver.

 

While the US-Iran conflict has raised concerns about fertiliser availability and affordability amid disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, BMI believes ample inventories will provide a sufficient buffer through the upcoming crop cycle, it said.

 

"In India, firm policy support is set to insulate yields from elevated fertiliser costs. This includes the government's reaffirmation that maximum retail prices for key fertilisers, including urea and diammonium phosphate, will be maintained."

China will face limited pressure, underpinned by high levels of self-sufficiency and export restrictions, as authorities continue to prioritise domestic food security, it said.

 

"In South East Asia, Vietnam's self sufficiency in nitrogenous fertilisers and reportedly secured supplies in Thailand through August 2026 should partly cushion these major exporters through the first regional crop cycle," it said.

 

Experts have pointed to the risks to crop arising from the approaching El Nino. However, BMI pointed out that the weather outlook remains broadly stable across major production regions through the main crop cycles.

 

"While the US Climate Prediction Center expects a transition to El Nio conditions from May, probabilities point to a weak event through August, by which key crop cycles, accounting for approximately 60% of output in India, 70% in China and 50% in Vietnam, are expected to have largely concluded."

 

Nevertheless, it remains cautious regarding crop cycles extending into Q4 2026, which coincides with the period during which El Nio conditions are expected to intensify, it said.

 

During this phase, potentially reduced rainfall across key producers, affecting the second crop in India and Thailand and the main crop in Bangladesh and Indonesia, could raise downside risks to yields, particularly during yield sensitive development stages.

Ending stocks of the cereal for 2025-26 are forecast at a record 192.3 million tonnes, representing a 0.4% rise on year. "We believe these elevated inventories will provide a meaningful buffer safety heading into 2026-27."

 

The note said it forecasts global rice consumption at 535.5 million tonnes in 2025-26, representing a 2.1% increase on year. Such a rise would be supported by population growth, urbanisation and rising incomes, with rice remaining a key staple across Asian, African and Latin American markets. "While we expect geopolitical risks to weigh modestly on consumer sentiment into 2026-27, we believe staple demand dynamics will remain resilient. As a result, we expect the global production balance to shift to a deficit of 1.4 million tonnes in the season."  End

 

Reported by Abhijit Doshi

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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