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Informist, Thursday, May 14, 2026

 

MUMBAI – The tropical Pacific Ocean is expected to continue warming in the coming months, and sea surface temperatures are likely to reach the El Nino threshold by early Southern Hemisphere winter — or by Jun-Jul — according to all international climate models' predictions, which include that by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The strength of this upcoming event is still uncertain, the bureau said in its fortnightly report on Tuesday.

 

Autumn in the Southern Hemisphere spans from March to June, winter from June to September, and spring from September to December. 

 

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is currently neutral, though there are signs of a possible El Nino development, the bureau said. As of Sunday, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation index was 0.52 degrees Celsius, which is within the neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions range. Ocean surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific between (-)0.80 degrees Celsius and 0.80 degrees Celsius are considered to be neutral conditions, while sustained values below (-)0.8 degrees Celsius for at least three months are considered indicative of a La Nina event. Sustained values above 0.8 degrees Celsius are associated with an El Nino event.

 

Sea surface temperatures have substantially warmed up in recent weeks, with the index warming by about 0.3 degrees Celsius in the past fortnight, and by 1 degrees Celsius since early March. "Significant warmth in the sub-surface suggests further warming of SSTs (sea surface temperatures) is likely in the coming weeks," it said.

 

Atmospheric indicators such as trade winds, pressure, and cloud patterns in the tropical Pacific Ocean remain consistent with neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions. The Madden Julian Oscillation is weak, but forecasts suggest it may re-strengthen over the western Pacific Ocean and Western Hemisphere regions during the end of May. If it re-strengthens, the associated westerly wind anomalies over the western Pacific Ocean could support further warming of the tropical Pacific.

 

The Madden-Julian Oscillation is a tropical disturbance that propagates eastward around the global tropics with a cycle on the order of 30–60 days. It does not cause El Nino or La Nina, but can contribute to the speed of development and intensity of such events.

 

The strength of the imminent El Nino event is uncertain, the bureau said. Some climate models suggest that the event will at least be moderate in strength, with a possibility of a strong event, based on the level of warming in the central tropical Pacific Ocean, it said. 

 

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is linked to drier and hotter weather in India, while La Nina results in more favourable rainfall.

 

The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently neutral, with the index at (-)0.04 degrees Celsius as of Sunday, the bureau said. The forecasts of the state of Indian Ocean Dipole in the coming months are largely uncertain, it said. Most climate models indicate that the index is likely to remain neutral at least till early winter, or Jun-Jul, with the development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole likely during Southern Hemisphere winter or spring. Forecasts of all climate models show a large variation in both the timing and strength of such an event, reflecting a broad range of possible outcomes, it said. 

 

The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole leads to less rainfall in India, while a positive index leads to more rainfall, and a neutral phase signals no significant change in precipitation.

 

The India Meteorological Department has forecast below normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon this year as El Nino conditions are likely to prevail in the second half of the season, from August. The weather bureau said overall rainfall in Jun-Sept is likely to be 92% of the long-period average with a modelling error of plus or minus 5%.  End

 

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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