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Informist, Wednesday, May 13, 2026

 

MUMBAI – The US Department of Agriculture has estimated wheat supply in the marketing year 2026-27 at 1.098 billion tonnes, down slightly from 1.102 billion tonnes estimated in 2025-26. The department also forecast a marginal fall in consumption, reduction in trade, and a decline in ending stocks in 2026-27 from the previous year in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report for May.

 

Global production of wheat is pegged at 819.06 million tonnes, down from last year's record production of 843.84 million tonnes, the department said. "A large share of the lower production is from all the major wheat exporting countries. The largest reductions are for the US, the European Union, Argentina, and Australia," it said.

 

The department estimates global wheat consumption to fall marginally to 823.23 million tonnes from 823.52 million tonnes in the previous year. The fall in consumption is likely due to less feed and residual use, mostly due to reduced production in most of the leading global wheat producers, the department said. Global food, seed, and industrial use is pegged higher, with India having the largest increase due to continued population growth and ample domestic wheat supplies used in the government's public distribution system, it said.

 

Global wheat trade is projected at 211.70 million tonnes, a decline of 11.98 million tonnes from 2025-26 primarily due to a fall in import demand from North Africa and West Asia, with significant production increases in several countries in these regions. Russia is expected to remain the largest exporter of wheat in 2026-27, followed by the EU, Canada, Australia, and the US. The department has estimated ending stocks in 2026-27 to fall to 275.04 million tonnes from 279.21 million tonnes, with the largest reduction in the US.

 

For India, the department has projected the country's wheat output at 121 million tonnes in 2026-27, up from 117.95 million tonnes seen in 2025-26. Its forecast for domestic consumption is pegged higher at 111.10 million tonnes from 107.7 million tonnes in the previous year, and ending stocks are seen higher at 30.0 million tonnes from 22.0 million tonnes seen last year.

 

RICE 

The department has projected rice supply in 2026-27 up at 734.12 million tonnes from 733.87 million tonnes estimated in 2025-26. For 2026-27, the department estimates a rise in trade and consumption, and a decline in production as also ending stocks from the previous year.

 

Global production of rice is set to decline for the first time since 2015-16, with output seen at 537.82 million tonnes, down from 542.82 million tonnes last year. "The largest production declines are for India, Myanmar, and the US," the department said.

 

Rice consumption across the globe is projected to rise by 3.83 million tonnes to a record 541.39 million tonnes due to higher use in several countries, the department said. India's use is forecast at a record 128.0 million tonnes, up from 124.0 million tonnes in 2025-26 due to population growth and continued distributions from the government's public distribution system, it said. Conversely, China's rice use is forecast downwards at 145.10 million tonnes from 147.23 million tonnes a year ago due to a declining population and changing consumer preferences, the department said.

 

Global rice trade is estimated to increase to a record 63.01 million tonnes from 60.28 million tonnes last year. India is expected to remain the leading exporter at 25.0 million tonnes, up from 23.0 million tonnes in 2025-26, the department said. "India, with ample supplies and competitively priced exports, is expected to limit export growth by other major Asian rice exporters," it said. 

 

Global ending stocks of rice are projected at 192.74 million tonnes, down from 196.31 million tonnes, largely due to a fall in ending stocks in India. Ending stocks in India are pegged at 50.0 million tonnes, down from 53.0 million tonnes last year. Production in India is forecast to fall to 150.0 million tonnes from 152.0 million tonnes a year ago.  End

 

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Vandana Hingorani

 

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