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Informist, Tuesday, Apr. 28, 2026

NEW DELHI – India's wheat production is estimated to rise 1% on year to 110.65 million tonnes in 2025-26 (Jul-Jun), supported by a 0.7% increase in acreage and largely stable yields, despite weather disturbances, according to AgriWatch. However, unseasonal rains and hailstorms during the harvest stage have impacted the crop in several regions, it added.

"The impact was observed across 9 major wheat-producing states, covering approximately 142 districts," AgriWatch said, adding that the extent of damage was spatially uneven and varied from 20% to 60%, the private agri-commodity research firm said in its first advance estimates. Although the crop year runs from Jun-Jul, wheat is only grown once a year, with sowing during Oct-Dec and harvest in Mar-Apr. 

 

AgriWatch's projection is lower than the government estimate of a record wheat output of 120.2 million tonnes for 2025-26, up from 115.4 million tonnes in the previous year. The estimate was released on Mar. 10 before adverse weather conditions had hit crops in March and April.

 

Though the national average yield improved 0.3% on year to 3,176 kg per hectare, several districts are estimated to have yield losses of 25-35% due to adverse weather conditions during late March to early April, AgriWatch said. 

 

At the national level, it is estimated that 25-40% of the cropped areas were affected by adverse weather conditions and production losses are pegged at 5-12%. Notably, the impact on grain quality is seen as more pronounced than the loss in volume. 

 

The worst-hit areas include several districts in Punjab and West Bengal, where estimated yield losses are 25-35%. Agriwatch has classified them as "high-intensity damage zones", where both yield and grain quality were impacted substantially. 

 

Punjab's Fazilka, Amritsar, Bathinda, and Moga reported significant damage due to combined effect of rainfall and hailstorm, while West Bengal's Dakshin Dinajpur, Malda, Uttar Dinajpur, Birbhum, and Murshidabad were notably affected, particularly due to rainfall during the maturity stage. 

 

Meanwhile, multiple states experienced "moderate to high impact", with estimated yield losses of 5-25%. Though the impact is only moderate in several districts of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, and Madhya Pradesh, these regions "contributed significantly to the overall spread of impact due to their large geographical coverage," AgriWatch said. 

 

States such as Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Maharashtra largely remained under "low-risk to no-risk" categories, with limited spatial spread and lower intensity of weather disturbances, Agriwatch said. Rajasthan experienced localised rainfall but the overall impact remained moderate. Maharashtra, despite earlier moisture stress conditions, saw that damages were largely confined to localised pockets affected by hailstorms. 

 

"Overall, the all-India wheat scenario reflects stable acreage, marginal improvements in yield, and moderate growth in production, indicating a resilient crop performance despite localised weather disruptions during the maturity stage."

 

Following are the state-wise estimates for wheat production by AgriWatch for 2025-26, compared with 2024-25, in million tonnes:

 

States	2025-26	2024-25	% change
Uttar Pradesh	31.43	32.24	-2.5
Madhya Pradesh	27.41	26.99	1.6
Punjab	15.38	15.58	-1.3
Haryana	10.61	10.49	1.1
Rajasthan	10.15	9.46	7.3
Total	110.65	109.63	1.0

 

*The total will not tally due to the omission of smaller states

 

End

 

Reported by Afra Abubacker

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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