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Informist, Monday, Apr. 27, 2026

MUMBAI – After being an active buyer in the spot market for met coal in 2025, India's spot demand is likely to shrink in 2026, S&P Global said in a note Friday. India also remained an active buyer in the first quarter of the year, although at a slower pace, it said.

"India was the most active spot buyer of met coal in Asia in 2025 and for Q1 2026, although at a slower pace. This came alongside a lull in the Chinese import market as buyers there relied mainly on domestic and Mongolian sources, while Southeast and Northeast Asian buyers entered the spot market only opportunistically," it noted.

This year, many Indian steel mills have shifted their preference to long-term contracts, particularly with Australian suppliers, for the financial year beginning Apr. 1. "At the same time, end-users with existing term contracts have also increased volumes bought on these terms."

Market participants anticipated the trend to likely sap spot demand this year, it said.

The steel mills are watching the price trends and keeping their options open. "The newly-contracted term volumes should meet our projected demand," an Indian steelmaker said. "But if spot prices are competitive enough, perhaps we might give that a thought too ... perhaps."

Moreover, India's spot demand for coal imports dipped in Q1 as end-users' preference for imported coke resurfaced, after antidumping duties on coke came into effect in January, replacing the country's 2025 import quotas.

Indonesian coke, being competitively priced when compared with Indian domestic supply, made some end-users weigh the benefits of importing it as opposed to buying coal.

"Mills were actively debating whether to buy coke or coking coal in Q1 due to attractive imported coke prices," an India-focused trader said.

Entering Q2, however, higher coking coal prices have led Indonesian coke producers to hike their offers for 65%/63% coke strength after reaction cargoes loading in June to up to $270 per tonne free on board Indonesia, an increase of up to $20 per tonne from March levels. This reduced the relative attractiveness of buying coke as opposed to coal, the note said.

Indian end-users have held back from buying expensive coke in Q2, an international coke trader said. He estimated that for Indian mills to actively consider buying Indonesian coke, prices would need to be below $250 per tonne FOB.  End

US$1 = INR 94.15

Reported by Abhijit Doshi

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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