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Informist, Friday, Apr. 24, 2026

 

MUMBAI – The International Grains Council has pegged global food grain output in 2026-27 at 2.41 billion tonnes, down 3 million tonnes from its March estimate. In its April projections, the council said it anticipates a decline in production of all major crops, including wheat and maize, due to concerns about fertiliser affordability and application decisions amid the war in West Asia. These have added to uncertainties about the cropping outlook during the year, including in parts of the Southern Hemisphere, where upcoming requirements may not be fully covered, the council said. However, global food grain output is still likely to be the second-highest on record, it said.

 

Food grain consumption during 2026-27 is projected at 2.44 billion tonnes, down 3 million tonnes from the March projection. Consumption is projected to increase for the fourth year in a row, but is revised downwards from the previous month due to rise in inventories and no change in trade, the council said.

 

The council has raised its projection for global food grain carry-over stocks in 2026-27 to 615 million tonnes from 609 million tonnes estimated in March. Global food grain trade during the same period is left unchanged at 448 million tonnes, the council said.

 

For 2025-26, the council has revised the global food grain production upwards by 4 million tonnes from March to 2.47 billion tonnes. This is largely due to a rise in maize production in Argentina, it said. Total food grain production is likely to reach a new peak in 2025-26, it said.

 

Global food grain consumption in 2025-26 is projected at 2.42 billion tonnes, down by 1 million tonnes from the previous month as lower wheat consumption in India has more than offset the rise in overall maize consumption, the council said. The forecast for carry-over stocks of food grains has been raised by 6 million tonnes from March to 638 million tonnes owing to bigger supply and smaller usage, which includes a sizeable revision for wheat, the council said. Global food grain trade for the year is pegged 2 million tonnes higher than the previous month at 451 million tonnes.

 

WHEAT

Global wheat production in 2026-27 is estimated at 821 million tonnes, down from 822 million tonnes projected in March. The council has pegged consumption of the grain during the same period at 825 million tonnes, lower than 829 million tonnes in the previous month. The forecast for carryover wheat stocks has been raised by 8 million tonnes from March to 284 million tonnes.

 

For 2025-26, estimates for global wheat production are unchanged from the previous month at 845 million tonnes. Wheat consumption is revised downwards by 6 million tonnes to 819 million tonnes, while carryover stocks are projected to rise by 6 million tonnes from March to 289 million tonnes, the council said.

 

MAIZE

The council has projected maize production to fall 3 million tonnes from March to 1.30 billion tonnes in 2026-27, while consumption is seen unchanged at 1.32 billion tonnes. Trade is seen higher at 199 million tonnes from 198 million tonnes projected in the previous month. 

 

Maize production during 2025-26 is pegged at 1.32 billion tonnes, 4 million tonnes higher than March's estimates, due to a rise in production in Argentina, the council said. Consumption during the period is projected to rise 5 million tonnes on-month to 1.31 billion tonnes, and trade is seen at 196 million tonnes, up from 195 million tonnes estimated in March.

 

RICE

The global rice production forecast for 2026-27 is seen at 548 million tonnes, unchanged from the previous month's projection. "Global rice output in 2026-27 is tentatively projected at a fresh peak, including bigger crops in India and China," the council said. Rice consumption is estimated to fall by 1 million tonnes from March to 544 million tonnes, and carry-over stocks are unchanged at 197 million tonnes. The projection for global trade during the same period is also unchanged at 61 million tonnes, though it is likely to exceed 60 million tonnes for the first time, "with import demand shaped by rising food requirements, particularly in Africa," it said.

 

Global rice output in 2025-26 is unchanged at 544 million tonnes. Consumption and carry-over stocks are also projected to be the same on-month at 537 million tonnes and 193 million tonnes, respectively. Global trade is revised downwards by 1 million tonnes from March to 59 million tonnes. 

 

SOYBEAN

Global soybean production in 2026-27 is pegged at a record 441 million tonnes, though down from 442 million tonnes seen in March. Global output is likely to hit a record high during the period due to acreage gains and improved productivity among leading growers, the council said.

 

Carry-over stocks of the oilseed during the period are estimated at 75 million tonnes, down from 79 million tonnes seen in March. "As the outlook for world utilisation is uprated slightly, inventories are trimmed by almost 4 million tonnes month-on-month, near-entirely on a reduced figure for combined exporters' reserves," the council said. Soybean trade for 2026–27 is revised upwards by 1 million tonnes to 191 million tonnes, and is likely to hit a new high, it said.

 

For 2025-26, global soybean output is estimated at 428 million tonnes, up by 2 million tonnes from March. Projections for carry-over stocks and trade are left unchanged from the previous month at 78 million tonnes and 187 million tonnes, respectively.  End

 

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

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