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Informist, Thursday, Apr. 23, 2026

 

By Abhijit Doshi

 

MUMBAI – Price of crude oil continued to rise Thursday even as a pause in peace talks between the US and Iran has led to a widespread demand disruption, observers said. This trend is only going to intensify as supply disruptions increase with a stalemate going on over the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, they added.

 

Reports of gunfire attacks on multiple vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, and Iranian forces seizing two ships have heightened concerns over the safety at a key global oil transit route, according to Kedia Advisory.

 

"Iran's stance of keeping the strait closed amid ongoing U.S. naval activity has further intensified supply risks, with potential demand disruption estimated at 4–5 million barrels per day, particularly impacting Asian markets," it said in a note.

 

Arguing that the demand disruption trend may persist, ING Economics said in a note that airlines continue to announce flight cancellations amid a tightening in jet fuel supply and high prices. Pointing out that Europe's jet fuel market is heavily exposed to developments in the Middle East (West Asia), the note said the region sources majority of its jet fuel imports from the Persian Gulf. "There is a push for Europe to look elsewhere for alternative supplies, while also relying heavily on inventory."

 

Meanwhile, The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries slightly lowered its global demand forecast for the second quarter, citing weakness linked to geopolitical uncertainty, though it expects demand to recover in the latter half of the year.

 

Kedia Advisory estimated the potential demand disruption at 4–5 million barrels per day.

 

At the same time, supply-side pressures, too, have increased, as noted by several observers. Russia is expected to cut output by 300,000–400,000 barrels per day in April and halt certain exports via the Druzhba pipeline from May. According to Kedia Advisory's note, Saudi Arabia's production dropped sharply to its lowest level since 2020 due to conflict-related disruptions. Recent data also point out the continuity of the trend.

 

As noted by ING Economics, the US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 1.93 million barrels over the last week. However, after taking into account strategic petroleum reserves releases, total crude oil inventories fell by 2.21 million barrels. "Given stronger refined product exports, gasoline and distillate fuel oil stocks fell by 4.57 million barrels and 3.43 million barrels, respectively. Meanwhile, implied demand for refined products came under pressure over the last week, falling by 1.07 million b/d WoW. The move was dominated by a decline in fuel oil and propane demand."

 

At 1150 IST, the June Brent crude contract on ICE was trading 0.9% up at $102.79 per barrel, while WTI crude oil futures for the same month on NYMEX were quoted at $93.87 per barrel, up about 1%. On MCX, the May contract was up 1.5% at INR 8,861 per barrel.  End

 

US$1 = INR 94.09

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

 

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