More Stories

Informist, Wednesday, Apr. 22, 2026

 

NEW DELHI – The UN cut its GDP growth projections for the Indian economy to 6.4% in the financial year 2026–27 (Apr-Mar) from 6.6% estimated in January, and 6.6% in FY28 from 6.8%. In its report, the UN also flagged downside risks to the projections from intensification of the war in West Asia, escalation of global trade tensions, and global financial volatility. The UN's growth projection for FY27 is lower than the Reserve Bank of India's estimate of 6.9%.

 

The UN has estimated India's CPI inflation at 4.4% in FY27 and 4.3% in FY28, higher than 2.1% retail inflation seen in FY26. "Under the alternative scenario of a prolonged conflict, economic growth could be notably lower than currently projected while inflation would be higher," the UN said in its report titled 'Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2026'.

 

If the war is prolonged, it would further increase commodity prices and freight costs and disrupt supply chains. These would lead to a spike in inflation and a hike in interest rates, dampen merchandise exports, and hurt remittance inflows, according to the report. "Meanwhile, the room for additional fiscal support has shrunk, given high public debt levels and debt servicing burdens in many countries," the UN said.

 

The UN has projected GDP growth for the entire Asia Pacific region at 3.5% in FY27 and 3.8% in FY28. Retail inflation in the region is likely to be 4.2% in the current financial year and 3.3% in FY28, according to the report.  

 

The agency had estimated India's economic growth in the last financial year at 7.4%, attributing it to robust consumption, the goods and services tax rate cuts, and export front-loading ahead of the levy of reciprocal tariffs by the US. However, economic activities moderated in the second half of the year as exports to the US declined by 25% following the introduction of 50% tariffs in August, as per the UN report.  End

 

Reported by Shweta

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (11) 4220-1000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.