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Informist, Tuesday, Apr. 21, 2026

By Abhijit Doshi

MUMBAI – Although global crude oil prices slipped Tuesday on expectations of the second round of talks between the US and Iran to end the on-going war in the West Asia, analysts suspect that the price fall could be temporary. There is little indication of a de-escalation in the war, they said.

At 1330 IST, the June contract of Brent crude on Intercontinental Exchange was trading at $94.06 per barrel, down 1.4% from its previous close, while the WTI futures contract was at $88.16 per barrel, down 1.6%. On the MCX, May contract was trading at INR 8,101 per barrel, down 0.8%.

Crude oil prices eased on Tuesday after Monday's sharp rally of over 6%, which was driven by a rapid deterioration in geopolitical conditions. The expected meeting between the two sides over the weekend did not happen, leaving markets on a tenterhook.

Oil prices slipped Tuesday on expectations that the US and Iran will now meet this week for a second round of peace talks as the end of a two-week ceasefire looms, Wall Street Journal said in a report. "The aim, of course, is to establish a viable off-ramp that enables energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz to resume on a sustained, long-term basis," it said, quoting analysts at ING.

Kuwait's declaration of force majeure on oil shipments added weight to concern that disruptions are no longer hypothetical but are already affecting physical supply, said Kaynat Chainwala, AVP Commodity Research, Kotak Securities.

Raising the level of market anxiety, US President Donald Trump warned that if Iran doesn't make a deal, it would face strikes to its bridges and power plants and that it was "highly unlikely" he would extend the ceasefire, the Wall Street Journal report said.

With Iran saying that it will not negotiate under pressure, and the ceasefire due to expire on Apr. 22, the window for a breakthrough is very narrow, Chainwala said. "Rather, the dip reflects short-term uncertainty as markets await clarity on whether diplomatic efforts can gain traction," she said.

"In this context, the price retracement appears more like a tactical consolidation than a shift in sentiment. Near-term direction will depend on whether tensions intensify further or if last-minute negotiations succeed in preventing additional supply disruptions," Chainwala said. Overall, markets remain driven by geopolitical risk and policy uncertainty, with direction likely to be dictated in the near term by US–Iran developments and incoming US macro data.  End

US$1 = INR 93.53

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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