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Informist, Thursday, Apr. 16, 2026

 

MUMBAI – The APEC Climate Center's El Nino-Southern Oscillation outlook continues to be in "El Nino Watch", suggesting the development of El Nino in the coming months, the climate centre said in its forecast for May to October. The probability of an El Nino onset during May-Jul is 98.7%, and it is expected to increase to around 99% during Aug-Oct, the climate centre said.

 

Sea surface temperature anomalies are expected to remain positive along the equator from May to October, with indications of a developing El Nino event. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation index value is expected to be 0.8 degrees Celsius in May, after which it is likely to increase to 2.18 degrees Celsius by October, the centre said. For La Nina to emerge, surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean should meet or fall below the threshold of (-)0.8 degrees Celsius. For El Nino, temperatures should be at or above 0.5 degrees Celsius.

 

Sea surface temperature anomaly is produced by subtracting the long-term mean sea surface temperature from a daily sea surface temperature value. A positive anomaly means that the daily value is warmer than the long-term average for that day; a negative anomaly means it is cooler than the average. A positive sea surface temperature anomaly usually indicates the formation of El Nino.

 

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is the oscillation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino-Southern Oscillation-neutral conditions generally mean near average rainfall conditions for India, with the monsoon performing close to its historical average. La Nina is usually associated with good rainfall over India, while El Nino is associated with a drier climate and drought conditions.

 

In May-Jul, there is a strongly enhanced probability of above-normal temperatures in the western parts of India, while there is an enhanced probability of above-normal temperatures in the rest of the country, the climate centre said. There is also a probability of below-normal rainfall over the country during the same period, the centre said. In Aug-Oct, there is a strongly enhanced probability of above-normal temperatures across India, while there is an enhanced probability of below-normal rainfall during the period over the entire Indian subcontinent, the climate centre said.

 

This suggests below normal rainfall during the entirety of southwest monsoon, which spans from June to September.

 

According to the India Meteorological Department, weak La Nina-like conditions persist at present and are transitioning to neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Development of El Nino conditions are likely during the southwest monsoon season, the Indian weather department said. "El Nino conditions will most likely result in lower rainfall from August," M. Ravichandran, secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, said while presenting the Indian weather department's first estimate for 2026 southwest monsoon on Monday. The Indian weather department has forecast below-normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon at 92% of the long-period average.  End

 

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

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