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Informist, Wednesday, Apr. 15, 2026

 

MUMBAI – Fitch Solutions company BMI has retained its annual average copper price forecast at $11,900 per tonne for 2026, with prices remaining volatile in the near term due to the conflict in West Asia. BMI's forecast is lower than the Bloomberg consensus of $12,310 per tonne for 2026. 

 

Though copper prices had hit an all-time high of $14,528 per tonne on Jan. 29, they fell to $11,700 per tonne on Mar. 23, the lowest level since December. Copper prices fell amid inflation-induced demand concerns, a stronger US dollar, and a sharp build-up in inventories, BMI said. 

 

Going forward, BMI expects the copper market to remain on edge, with the near-term risks skewed to the downside if the West Asia conflict continues. The outlook factors in the fragile two-week pause in hostilities, the lack of agreement in negotiations in Pakistan on Apr. 11, and lingering uncertainty around the activity through the Strait of Hormuz, BMI said. On the macro front, the US Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady for longer due to persistent inflation and elevated inflation expectations, even after the West Asia conflict ends, which will weigh on copper prices, it added. 

 

On the demand side, the outlook for China, the largest consumer of copper, remains mixed. BMI expects sluggish demand from China to add headwinds later in the year. Though the official purchasing managers index for China expanded in March, a lingering domestic property market downturn and declining investments in the real estate sector are likely to weigh on copper prices, BMI said. 

 

On the supply side, BMI expects the copper market to remain in surplus in 2026, compared with the previously projected deficit, largely due to a deceleration in growth in refined copper consumption amid the US-Iran conflict. "In the longer term, we expect the copper market to remain in deficit as the green transition accelerates, along with demand for 'green' metals, including copper," BMI said. The company forecasts copper prices to reach $17,000 per tonne by 2035, as the structural deficit persists, driven by a very strong long-term demand outlook.

 

A strong pipeline of new projects is expected to add copper supply over the next decade. Copper is required in almost every aspect of the green energy transition. "According to the International Energy Agency, battery electric vehicles require approximately 53.2 kg (kilogram) of copper, more than the 22.3 kg needed in the production of conventional cars," BMI said.

 

"We see a number of upside and downside risks to our forecast for copper prices, given the current volatile economic conditions," BMI said. On the downside, copper prices may decline if global growth weakens further in 2026, especially if the conflict in West Asia and rising oil prices push the world economy into recession. Easing tariff threats and potential exemptions for refined copper later in 2026 could also improve supply and reduce pressure in markets outside the US, BMI said.

 

"In terms of upside, unforeseen supply disruptions, protracted recovery from operational setbacks at sites affected in 2025, as well as lower Chinese refined copper production, have the potential to exert upward pressure on prices," BMI said. A strong rebound in China's property sector would also boost demand and support prices, it added. 

 

At 1449 IST, the three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange was steady at $13,278.0 per tonne.  End

 

US$1 = INR 93.37

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Reported by Reshma Ravi

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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