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Informist, Monday, Apr. 13, 2026

 

By Shreya Shetty

 

MUMBAI – Wheat stocks with Food Corp. of India as on Apr. 1 are estimated at 20–23 million tonnes, lower than 23.6 million tonnes on Mar. 1, according to analysts and market participants. The month-on-month fall is largely due to the government offloading wheat through the public distribution system and delay in procurement of the new rabi crop, they said.

 

"This year, the government has offloaded ration for two to three months all at once among people across many states," said Ajay Goyal, chairman of the Wheat Products Promotion Society and managing director of Shivaji Roller Flour Mills. "They (the government) probably want to empty their stocks a bit," he said.

 

According to Goyal, wheat stocks with FCI are likely to be 20–21 million tonnes as on Apr. 1, well above the buffer norm for Apr-Jun. According to norms, minimum wheat stocks for Apr-Jun should be nearly 7.5 million tonnes – operational stock of 4.46 million tonnes and a strategic reserve of 3.00 million tonnes. The government sets the buffer requirement of food grains for every quarter, and FCI has to maintain the mandated level.

 

"Wheat stocks on Apr. 1 are likely to be around 21–22 million tonnes," said Sandeep Bhansal, director of Grain Flour India Pvt. Ltd. "There has been consumption through the PDS (public distribution system)," he said.

 

Typically, the government offloads 1.5 million tonnes per month through the public distribution system, Bansal said. However, this year, it has allocated an additional 3 million tonnes, he said. "But the government has not been able to distribute this extra allocation fully in all states, that's why there is no major drop in wheat stocks," he added.

 

The public distribution system is a food security system established under the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food, and Public Distribution. It includes a government-sponsored chain of fair price shops that distribute basic food and non-food commodities to low-income groups at cheap prices, which includes wheat.

 

A delayed start to the government's procurement of the staple grain is also likely to result in an on-month decline in wheat stocks, market participants said.

 

"Procurement has been delayed this year. Typically, in Madhya Pradesh till now, 1–1.5 million tonnes would have been procured," said S. Pramod,  former president of the Roller Flour Millers Federation of India. "This, along with consumption of the grain is likely to bring it (wheat stocks) down to 21 million tonnes on Apr. 1," he said.

 

Unseasonal rainfall in the country during the second half of March and the first half of April has taken a toll on standing rabi crops, particularly in northern states, analysts and market participants said. Crops that are harvested later in the season, such as wheat, have been damaged, with some regions reporting crop losses as well, they said.

 

"The moisture levels are very high, fields are wet, farmers can't harvest the crop in such conditions," according to a source. The standing wheat crop also needs to dry out to some extent before harvesting as storing wet grains post-harvest is likely to result in spoilage and pests, he said.

 

"Usually, procurement starts properly by the end of March or by Apr. 1, but this time it is 10–12 days delayed," the source said.

 

"Procurement has begun in some states, but it is slow," said a wholesale trader in Navi Mumbai, Maharashtra. One of the reasons for the slow start to procurement has been the poor quality of the new grain, which has been affected by unseasonal rains in many parts of the country in March, he said. There have been media reports of FCI unwilling to accept grain that is below its quality specifications.

 

A shortage of gunny bags, estimated at 50-60 million, has also hurt procurement, according to market participants. "Procurement began recently, but it is off to a slow start mainly because of a shortage of jute or gunny bags," according to a trader from Indore, Madhya Pradesh. He pegs wheat stocks with the FCI as on Apr. 1 at 23 million tonnes.

 

The ongoing war in West Asia has disrupted the supply of polypropylene raffia granules, a key raw material used to manufacture plastic sacks, according to sources. India relies on imports of this key input, making domestic availability sensitive to global disruptions. Government agencies primarily use jute bags, supplemented by high-density polyethylene or polypropylene sacks, for wheat procurement.

 

"There are shortages in gunny bags, because of which the government has floated tenders to purchase it," said Rahul Chauhan, director of IGrain India, an agri-commodity research centre. "This has pushed prices of gunny bags higher, and because of this in some states the tenders have been cancelled," he said. Wheat stocks with the FCI are likely to be around 22.2 million tonnes as on Apr. 1, Chauhan said.

 

The rise in prices of gunny bags is likely to exert pressure on the government's spending on wheat procurement, Chauhan said. This comes at a time when the government's costs for holding foodgrains have increased substantially due to huge stocks, market participants said.

 

The government is holding a large surplus of foodgrains, which is weighing on its spending, experts said. "They have a space issue, and they are paying a lot for storage as it is. This is also impacting procurement this year," Bansal said.

 

As of Mar. 1, total foodgrain stocks held by FCI were 60 million tonnes. Even though the market predicts a drop in stocks from the previous month, it is still likely to be significantly higher than last year, they said.

 

Wheat stocks with the FCI as of Apr. 1 last year were 11.8 million tonnes, data from the nodal procurement agency showed. Total foodgrain stocks, which include rice, were 50.0 million tonnes last year, the data showed.

 

FCI is likely to detail its Apr. 1 food stocks soon.  End

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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