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Informist, Monday, Apr. 13, 2026

 

MUMBAI – The India Meteorological Department is scheduled to announce its first estimate for the southwest monsoon in 2026 in a long-range forecast at 1600 IST Monday, it said in a release Sunday. The forecast is expected to cover the rainfall during the southwest monsoon, which spans from June to September.

 

Southwest monsoon is important for India's agriculture economy as rainfall during these four months accounts for more than 70% of India's total rainfall, and most kharif crops sown during this period depend on monsoon rains.

 

The forecast assumes added importance in view of the El Nino phenomenon expected to form later this year.

 

According to private forecast agency Skymet, the 2026 southwest monsoon in India is expected to be below normal at 94% of the long period average, with a model error of plus or minus 5%. Rainfall in June is likely to be stable, before weakening from July to September due to the onset and strengthening of the El Nino, the weather agency said last week.

 

Skymet expects 817 millimetres of rainfall during the upcoming monsoon, which is 90-95% of the long period average — categorised as below normal. The long period average for the season is 868.6 millimetres.

 

The Indian weather department typically issues its first estimate for the southwest monsoon every year around this time. It also updates its forecast towards the end of May.  End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Reported by Abhijit Doshi and Shreya Shetty

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

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