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Informist, Friday, Apr. 10, 2026

 

MUMBAI – The US Department of Agriculture has raised its projection for 2025-26 global wheat supply by 1.5 million tonnes from the previous month to 1.103 billion tonnes. The increase is largely due to higher production in the European Union and Russia, it said in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report for April. Global rice supply has also been revised upwards from last month to 732.9 million tonnes, it said.

 

The department has revised its estimate for global consumption of wheat downwards due to lower food, seed, and industrial use in India. Global consumption of wheat is pegged at 820.1 million tonnes, down 4.7 million tonnes from March, the department said. India's government data on wheat stocks for the first 11 months of the country's marketing year indicate higher stocks than previously estimated, implying less domestic use, it said.

 

World trade of wheat has been revised downwards by 300,000 tonnes from last month to 221.9 million tonnes, the department said. The department has revised global wheat trade downwards as lower exports from Ukraine, Australia, and Brazil were not completely offset by higher exports from Russia and Kazakhstan, it said. 

 

Global ending stocks are pegged higher at 283.12 million tonnes from 276.96 million tonnes seen last month, the department said. This is 24 million tonnes or 9% higher than the ending stocks in the same period last year, it said. "India, Ukraine, the EU (European Union), Australia, and Bangladesh account for most of the stocks increase this month," it said.

 

For India, the department has maintained its wheat production estimate at 117.95 million tonnes in 2025-26. Its forecast for domestic consumption is pegged lower at 107.7 million tonnes from 112.51 million tonnes projected in March, and ending stocks are seen higher at 22 million tonnes from 17.19 million tonnes seen in the previous month.

 

RICE

The department has revised its projection for 2025-26 rice supply upwards by 400,000 tonnes from last month to 732.9 million tonnes, mainly due to higher output in Thailand. Global rice consumption is pegged lower by 400,000 tonnes from March at 540.6 million tonnes, reflecting changes in several countries, the department said.

 

Global rice trade for the year is seen down 500,000 tonnes at 61.5 million tonnes, largely due to a reduction in Pakistan on its slow pace of exports, the department said.

 

Global opening stocks of rice in 2025-26 are seen at 191.52 million tonnes, up from the March estimate of 191.22 million tonnes, the department said. Ending stocks for the year are seen at 192.31 million tonnes, up from 191.54 million tonnes in March, it said.

 

Rice production in India is seen unchanged at 152 million tonnes, while exports from the country are also pegged unchanged at 24 million tonnes, the department said.  End

 

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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