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Informist, Wednesday, Apr. 8, 2026

 

By Shreya Shetty

 

MUMBAI – The ongoing spell of pre-monsoon showers and hailstorms in the country has taken a toll on standing rabi crops, particularly in northern states, analysts and market participants said. Crops that are harvested later in the season, such as wheat, have been damaged, with some regions reporting crop losses as well, they said.

 

"There are reports from Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh that there is lustre loss in the crop. I cannot put a number to it, but overall crop damage may be around 10-20%," said Ajay Goyal, chairman of the Wheat Products Promotion Society and managing director of Shivaji Roller Flour Mills.

 

"Recent unseasonal rains and hailstorms have caused significant damage to wheat crops across parts of Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan, particularly affecting crops at the harvesting stage," said Rahul Chauhan, director of IGrain India, an agri-commodity research centre.

 

The country recorded a rise in wet spells, thunderstorms, and hailstorms in the second half of March, a stark contrast to the heatwave conditions seen in the first half of the month. "From Mar. 15, there were pre-monsoon showers which were well before time," said Mahesh Palawat, vice-president of meteorology at private weather forecaster Skymet.

 

Temperatures in many parts of India soared above 40 degrees Celsius in the first half of March. "Whenever temperatures go above 45 degrees (Celsius), there is a balancing mechanism in the atmosphere. When temperatures increase significantly and if there is a slight cyclonic circulation or some disturbance, it leads to formation of thunderclouds," Palawat said.

 

In March, the country recorded 33.7 millimetres of rainfall, 12.5?ove the normal for the period, the India Meteorological Department said. Most of the rainfall was recorded in the second half of the month, when pre-monsoon activities picked up, the department said. The wet spell has continued in the first week of April.

 

Wheat is among the last major rabi crops to be harvested during the season – some states begin harvesting it in February, while in some, it stretches till June. In key producing states such as Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan, it is harvested during Mar-Apr.

 

"The untimely weather during harvesting is likely to impact wheat quality. Reports indicate discolouration of grains and reduced shine, which may lower market value," Chauhan said.

 

"Around 25–30% of the standing crop has been damaged, though it is still fit for processing for human consumption," said a trader from Kota, Rajasthan. Most of the damage is categorised as lustre loss, he said.

 

Lustre damage in wheat is the loss of the grain's natural, glossy shine, often caused by unseasonal rain, high moisture, or hailstorms during maturity. This leads to grain shrivelling, discolouration, increased enzyme activity, and susceptibility to pests, often resulting in lower market prices and reduced flour quality. 

 

Reports also suggest lodging damage to the crop, which has affected the protein content in the grain, Goyal said. "Certain districts in Uttar Pradesh are reporting that 40% of the crop has been damaged," he said.

 

Lodging is the movement of stems or roots away from their upright and ideal position. It can reduce nutrient density and result in a drop in yields. Primary causes are often attributed to wet soil.

 

"The (damaged) wheat can still be used, especially to make biscuits and such. For other kinds of baking, like bread and cakes, the protein is affected, so it will be hard," Goyal said. "The affected wheat will be sold at a discount, around 2%. The better quality of wheat will go at 1% premium," he said.

 

On Tuesday, prices of average quality wheat in Kota were at INR 2,300-INR 2,451 per 100 kg, while prices of the best quality wheat were INR 2,500-INR 2,700 per 100 kg.

 

In the coming days, spot markets are expected to receive higher arrivals of discoloured and lower-grade wheat, Chauhan said. As a result, price variations based on quality are likely to emerge, with better-quality wheat commanding a premium over damaged produce, he said.

 

The continuous spell of showers and hailstorms has also resulted in crop losses in some northern states, some analysts said. According to estimates, crop losses in Uttar Pradesh are anywhere around 15–35%, while in Rajasthan, they are 15–25%, Chauhan said. Total wheat production could decline 3–4% to 115 million tonnes, he said.

 

On the other hand, Goyal believes there is little to no crop loss due to the unseasonal rainfall. "Only the quality has been affected, there is no crop loss," he said, adding, "There is no effect on the government's estimate, it remains the same."

 

Unseasonal rainfall impacts the wheat crop every three to four years, Goyal said. "Usually, when there are cyclones and even more harsh weather, then crop loss is reported, the yield is impacted," he said. However, with only rainfall and some hailstorms recorded this year, only the quality of the crop has been impacted, he said.

 

Wheat production in 2025–26 (Jul-Jun) is estimated at 120.2 million tonnes, up from 115.4 million tonnes the previous year, according to the second advance estimate released by the agriculture ministry.

 

Other major rabi crops such as chana and maize have largely escaped the impact of unfavourable weather as the bulk of such crops have already been harvested or are in the end stages of being harvested, experts said.

 

"There is no major damage to the chana crop as of now in states such as Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, which recorded a continuous spell of showers recently," an analyst from the India Pulses and Grains Association said. "Even if there is any damage, it could be around 2-5%, which is par for the course; it is not worrisome," he added.

 

"The crop quality is still good because there were favourable sowing conditions this year. Harvest is currently ongoing in Rajasthan, and there have been no reports of damage," the analyst said.

 

"The impact on chana crop is not so severe. Around 80% of chana in Rajasthan has already been harvested," Chauhan said. "Similarly, for maize, around 70% of the harvesting is done pan-India," he said.

 

While some issues have been reported with the barley crop in Rajasthan, the main impact so far has only been observed on the wheat crop, as a large part of it has not been harvested yet, Chauhan said.

 

Rabi maize output is pegged at 15.9 million tonnes, up from 12.4 million tonnes, while chana production is pegged at 11.8 million tonnes, up from 11.5 million tonnes last year, according to the agriculture ministry.  End

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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