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Informist, Thursday, Apr. 2, 2026

 

By Shreya Shetty

 

MUMBAI – India's agriculture sector may have to grapple with unfavourable climatic conditions again this year after a two-year hiatus, with forecasters predicting an El Nino phenomenon, which could affect rainfall during the southwest monsoon season, in turn affecting crop output, according to experts and market participants. The likelihood of an El Nino event anywhere between June and September could hit agricultural production in the crop year 2026-27 (Jul-Jun), they said.

 

"There are multiple dimensions to this," G. Chandrashekhar, commodity expert and policy commentator, said. "The first one is that we still don't have enough evidence to prove whether the El Nino will be mild or severe. But one thing is sure, El Nino will be there. Even if there is mild El Nino, the impact will depend on temporal and spatial distribution of the southwest monsoon."

 

Normally, trade winds in the Pacific Ocean blow westwards along the equator, taking warm water from South America towards Asia. To replace that warm water, cold water rises from the depths in a process called upwelling. During an El Nino phase, the trade winds weaken and warm water is pushed back east, towards the west coast of the Americas. The abnormal warming of surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean and weakening trade winds cause global weather patterns to shift.

 

According to various international climate centres, neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions prevail currently. A further warming of the sub-surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific Ocean indicates a transition to El Nino in the latter half of 2026, though there is some variation among the climate models in the rate at which the El Nino threshold could be reached. Some models suggest a transition as early as May while others show a slower warming and a transition into El Nino in late September.

 

The latest forecasts from the India Meteorological Department suggest a 62% chance of a transition from neutral conditions to El Nino in Jul-Aug, likely persisting till the end of 2026. "Up to June, there will be no El Nino conditions developing in the Pacific Ocean," Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general, India Meteorological Department, said Tuesday when presenting the department's monthly outlook for rainfall and temperature. "Then, at the end of July, or even at the end of August, there could be the development of El Nino conditions."

 

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is linked with drier and hotter weather in India while La Nina results in more favourable rainfall.

 

Regardless of the period of transition from neutral conditions to El Nino, the event is likely to have an impact on the southwest monsoon in India, putting the country's most crucial kharif crop season at risk, experts said. This comes at a time when the country has already recorded deficient rainfall the past three months, they said.

 

"During the ongoing season, rainfall in India is very less... In the last southwest monsoon, the rain was good, which was good for kharif (crops) and due to good soil moisture content, rabi was good too," said Rahul Chauhan, president, IGrain, an agri-commodity research centre. "But in the last month there were no rains in many parts... Now, for the upcoming kharif season, the moisture content is very less. If El Nino comes, then there will be less rainfall, which means crops will not get enough water."

 

In January, the country received 31.5?low-normal rains at 11.7 millimetres. In February, it recorded 4.2 millimetres of rainfall, 81.3?low normal, according to data from the weather bureau. In March, the country recorded 33.7 millimetres of rainfall, 12.5?ove normal for the period, though most of the showers were recorded in the second half of the month, when pre-monsoon activity picked up, according to the department.

 

The kharif season spans from June to September. Most crops sown during the season are heavily rain-dependent. They include paddy, tur, and groundnut.

 

The possibility of El Nino conditions also clouds the prospects of timely onset of the southwest monsoon, which could delay the sowing of kharif crops, Chandrashekhar said. "A delay in planting will mean a delay in harvest, or a delay due to no guarantee of precipitation and soil moisture," he said.

 

"We cannot say that monsoon onset will be on time or it will be delayed (as of now)," Mahesh Palawat, vice-president in the meteorology department at private weather forecaster Skymet, said. He added that the impact of El Nino is likely to be negligible in June, so a normal progression of the monsoon is expected. "If the onset is five days before the normal onset date or after five days, it doesn't matter. The main concern is how the monsoon progresses after the onset," he said.

 

El Nino will evolve during August and September, Palawat said. "Historically, we have seen that evolving El Nino is much more dangerous than El Nino which is already there," he said.

 

"If it (El Nino) becomes severe in Aug-Sept, which is the harvest season, then everything will be lost, crops will be destroyed. There will be a big loss for farmers," Chandrashekhar said. "For the kharif crop, the average of last three years will fall."

 

However, Chandrashekhar said the entire country is unlikely to be affected by the weather phenomenon, and some parts will still receive ample rainfall and see good production. "India is a big country, it seldom happens that there are dry conditions across India," he said. "The last time such a situation happened was 2002."

 

DEJA VU?

The country's dependency on farm commodity imports is likely to increase if production is affected by El Nino, which would be a repeat of the El Nino impact seen in 2023, experts said.

 

In 2023, India experienced a strong El Nino factor, recording 820 millimetres of rainfall during the southwest monsoon, 94.4% of the long period average, technically coming in the "normal" category, according to the weather department. Rainfall in August was hit hard by the evolving El Nino, recording only 64% of the long period average, categorised as "below normal".

 

Production of food grain crops such as cereals and pulses saw a negligible rise in the crop year 2023-24 at 155.77 million tonnes against 155.71 million tonnes in 2022-23. The kharif oilseeds output in 2023-24 fell to 24.16 million tonnes from 26.15 million tonnes the previous year.

 

"We are already dependent on imports for pulses and oilseeds. So if there will be less production, then our market will be totally dependent on imports, which is not good for Indian farmers," Chauhan said.

 

"We are not self-sufficient in any crop except paddy and wheat," Chauhan added. "If one season fails, then it disturbs the full cycle of consumption, supply, and production."

 

Chauhan pointed to the example of pulses, explaining that lower production in 2023-24 resulted in a jump in imports. He said that in the financial year 2023-24 (Apr-Mar), India "imported 4.41 million tonnes of pulses against 2.37 million tonnes in FY23 due to less production because of El Nino." In FY25, pulses imports jumped further to 6.94 million tonnes, primarily because of the duty-free imports of yellow peas.

 

Between July 2023 and December 2024, the consumer food price index rose by an average of over 8.5%, marking one of India's longest food inflation spells in recent times due to the impact of the 2023 El Nino on the monsoon and, consequently, on agricultural production.

 

Barclays India, in a report titled "India Monsoon Outlook: not a good spell", said Thursday that in its base case scenario, it is not overly concerned about the risk of runaway food inflation because the correlation between India's agriculture output and the intensity of monsoon rainfall is weakening. "In the event of a supply shock, we would expect the government to offload buffer stocks of food grains to keep prices in check," it said.

 

However, if the "downside case" materialises, then sowing and output may both decline, Barclays said. "In this case, apart from dipping into buffer stocks, the government may also look to put in place export restrictions for impacted crops," it said.

 

There is also a chance that El Nino in 2026 could be more severe than the phenomenon was in 2023, Palawat said. This could result in a greater impact on the southwest monsoon. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole emerged in the second half of 2023, which negated much of the negative impact of the El Nino event that year. "But this year, we do not foresee that the Indian Ocean Dipole will be very positive," Palawat said. "So, the chances of below-normal rainfall are there in August and September--this year El Nino impact will be more severe (than in 2023)."

 

The Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to remain neutral throughout the year, removing a potential offsetting mechanism that has softened the impact of El Nino in years past, Barclays said. The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole results in reduced rainfall in India, while a positive dipole results in more rainfall. A neutral phase signals no significant change in precipitation.

 

The Indian weather department, however, expects the neutral Indian Ocean Dipole to transition to a positive state in the second half of the southwest monsoon this year. The department did not comment on the possible impact on the monsoon of the upcoming El Nino phenomenon, stating that it is too early to say anything. "El Nino is not the only parameter for the forecast of monsoon... the understanding of the monsoon is complex, we cannot go by only one indication," Mohapatra said.

 

While some experts believe the upcoming El Nino could also impact the rabi season of the crop year 2026-27, others say it is premature to give any outlook for the same. "We still don't know what the duration of El Nino will be, so I can't say about rabi," Chandrashekhar said. "If El Nino fades by November, then it would be okay. As of now the expectations are not that scary, though we should not dismiss the possibility of the event."

 

In the 2023-24 rabi season, food grain output rose over 1% to 160.01 million tonnes and oilseeds output was up nearly 1% at 14.28 million tonnes. Wheat, chana, and mustard are some of the country's major rabi crops.  End

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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