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Informist, Wednesday, Apr. 1, 2026

 

By Pallavi Singhal

 

NEW DELHI – The government's decision to extend duty-free imports of tur and urad, while retaining a 10% duty on chana and masur, and 30% on yellow peas, is aimed at containing inflation and ensuring adequate supplies with limited direct impact on prices or sowing decisions, market participants and analysts said.

 

"This was widely expected and completely justified...the government wants to keep food prices as low as possible," said commodity analyst G. Chandrasekhar, adding that policymakers are increasingly concerned about pressures building through what he described as the "three Cs" — crude oil, currency, and crops.

 

Crude oil prices are expected to remain high through the year, which could lift overall inflation, he said. Crude oil prices have seen a significant rise, with Brent crude surpassing $119 per barrel Tuesday, witnessing its highest monthly gain since 2022, driven by supply disruptions and heightened tensions in West Asia and closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

 

At the same time, the rupee has weakened sharply in recent months, falling below the 95-per-dollar mark on Monday, making imports more expensive and adding to what Chandrasekhar termed "imported inflation", given India's dependence on commodities such as edible oils and fertilisers.

 

The third risk comes from crops. Chandrasekhar flagged concerns over potential downward revisions to wheat and mustard output, along with weather-related risks later in the year.

 

"The threat of El-Nino for the second half of the year... will coincide with the kharif planting and harvesting," he said, warning that any adverse monsoon could tighten the supply-demand balances and add to food inflation. The India Meteorological Department, in its forecast Tuesday, said it sees a 62% chance of a transition from neutral conditions to El-Nino in Jul-Aug, likely persisting till the end of 2026.

 

Chandrashekhar also pointed to rising fertiliser costs, driven by elevated energy prices and global supply disruptions, which could push up the cost of cultivation for upcoming crops and further add to inflationary pressures. The government has assured adequate availability of fertilisers, but that may not hold if the crisis continues. Against this backdrop, keeping imports open allows the government to "augment our supplies" and cushion consumers from potential price spikes, Chandrasekhar said.

 

For now, however, domestic factors are keeping prices in check. The ongoing arrival of chana and urad crops has ensured comfortable availability, limiting any near-term upside in pulses prices. In physical markets, chana prices in Akola, Maharashtra, were steady at INR 5,650 per 100 kg on Wednesday, below the minimum support price of INR 5,875 per 100 kg. Urad prices in Jaipur were at INR 7,800–8,800 per 100 kg, around the MSP of INR 7,800 per 100 kg.

 

Even so, imports are unlikely to significantly depress domestic prices, Chandrasekhar said. "With MSP in place and the government assuring procurement, I do not see any significant acreage fall even if prices weaken," he said.

 

According to government data, the area under pulses has increased only marginally to 3.6 million hectares so far in 2025-26 (Jul-Jun) from 3.5 million hectares in 2021-22. However, within this, acreage under key crops has declined--of tur by about 10%, gram by 11%, and that of urad by a sharp 40% over the same period.

 

With policy having a limited role in shaping acreage, weather is likely to be the more decisive factor in the upcoming season. "We have to keep an eye on weather forecasting... chances of El-Nino are above 50%, so that is a cause of worry," said Satish Upadhyay, secretary of the India Pulses and Grains Association.

 

A potential El-Nino event could affect both acreage and yields, and, in turn, shape supply and prices more meaningfully than policy changes, he said. Imports of moong have remained restricted since 2022. India imports around 5–6 million tonnes of pulses annually to meet domestic demand of about 28 million tonnes.

 

Stocks of pulses held by the government currently stand around 2.2 million tonnes, below the buffer norm of 3.5 million tonnes and leaving room for further procurement in the ongoing season. Officials said the combination of stocks, procurement and imports provides a sufficient supply cushion, reducing the need for any immediate policy change.   End

 

US$1 = INR 94.83

 

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

 

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