El Nino Forecast
La Nina ends, El Nino likely later this year, says Australia Met dept
This story was originally published at 11:32 IST on 1 April 2026
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Wednesday, Apr. 1, 2026
MUMBAI – The La Nina event has ended, and oceanic and atmospheric indicators of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation reflect neutral conditions at present, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said in its fortnightly report Tuesday. Neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions are expected to persist till at least late Southern Hemisphere autumn, after which all international climate models indicate a transition to El Nino by the end of Southern Hemisphere winter, or later in 2026, the bureau said.
Autumn in the Southern Hemisphere spans from March to June, and winter from June to September.
Sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific Ocean have been within the El Nino-Southern Oscillation neutral range for the past six weeks, with the latest relative index value for the week ended Sunday at (-)0.42 degrees Celsius. A recent pulse of warming on the sub-surface suggests further warming of the sea surface is likely in the coming weeks, the bureau said.
Ocean surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific between (-)0.80 degrees Celsius and 0.80 degrees Celsius are considered to be neutral conditions, while sustained values below (-)0.8 degrees Celsius for at least three months are considered indicative of a La Nina event. Sustained values above 0.8 degrees Celsius are associated with an El Nino event.
As of Sunday, the 30-day Southern Oscillation Index value was 10.4, above the La Nina threshold of 7, the bureau said. The Southern Oscillation Index tracks the atmospheric part of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation, comparing the difference from average air pressure in the western Pacific, measured in Darwin, Australia, to the difference from average pressure in the central Pacific, measured in Tahiti.
Atmospheric indicators such as trade winds, pressure, and cloud patterns in the tropical Pacific reflect neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions, the bureau said. Westerly wind anomalies have extended into the central equatorial Pacific Ocean in the last fortnight, which is likely to persist in the coming weeks and enhance warming of tropical Pacific sub-surface temperatures, it said.
All international climate models indicate warming of sub-surface temperatures to levels consistent with El Nino by the end of winter. There is some variation among the models in the rate at which the El Nino threshold could be reached, with some suggesting a transition as early as May, while others show a slower warming and a transition into El Nino in late winter, the bureau said.
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is linked to drier and hotter weather in India, while La Nina results in more favourable rainfall.
The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently neutral, the bureau said. As of Sunday, the Indian Ocean Dipole index was (-)0.25 degrees Celsius. The index has remained neutral despite a period of elevated values from late January to early March, and it is likely to remain neutral at least till the end of autumn, it said.
The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole leads to less rainfall in India, while a positive index leads to more rainfall and a neutral phase signals no significant change in precipitation.
Neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with an 82% chance of such conditions persisting from April to June, according to the India Meteorological Department. The latest forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System suggest a 62% chance of a transition from neutral conditions to El Nino in Jul-Aug, likely persisting till the end of 2026, the Indian weather department said. End
Reported by Shreya Shetty
Edited by Avishek Dutta
For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.
Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.
Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000
Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com
© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.
To read more please subscribe
Share this Story:
