Strong El Nino possibility raises fear of below-normal rains in India - SEA
This story was originally published at 14:33 IST on 20 March 2026
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MUMBAI – The Solvent Extractors Association of India said that possibility of a strong El Nino and its potential of becoming a super El Nino have raised concern about a below-normal monsoon rainfall in India. This could adversely affect kharif oilseed sowing, particularly soybean and groundnut, leading to lower acreage and tighter domestic supplies, it said. "In this backdrop, proactive measures in domestic production and calibrated import planning will be crucial to ensure supply stability and price balance," the association in a release.
Meanwhile, the ongoing military conflict in West Asia is creating significant uncertainties for India's edible oil imports. As a result, edible oil prices--particularly sunflower oil--have shown increased volatility in the domestic market. Hence, India is exploring diversification of sourcing to ensure supply stability, the association said.
Disruptions in key shipping routes, including the Red Sea and Suez Canal, along with risks to sunflower oil supplies from Russia and Ukraine, are leading to delays, higher freight costs, and supply concerns. But timely interventions by the government such as waiver of fee for amendment or cancellation of export documents under force majeure conditions, relief in ground rent and reefer charges by Jawaharlal Nehru Port Authority, advisory for transparency in shipping charges, simplified procedures for return of export cargo, will significantly ease the operational burden on exporters and ensure continuity of trade during this challenging period, it said.
The association said that when China had announced a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil, oil cakes including canola meal, and peas, along with 25% duties on other products, India had effectively capitalised on this opportunity with competitive pricing, exporting over 770,000 tonnes during Apr-Feb in the absence of Canadian supplies. However, with Canada re-entering the market, following China's decision to lift the 100% tariff on Canadian canola meal from Mar 1, competition is expected to intensify, marking a significant shift in global trade dynamics.
"This development presents a critical phase for India, where sustaining market share in China will depend on maintaining price competitiveness, ensuring consistent supply, and reinforcing its position in an increasingly competitive environment," the association said. End
Reported by Taniva Singha Roy
Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury
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