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Informist, Friday, Mar. 20, 2026

 

MUMBAI – The International Grains Council has projected global foodgrain output in 2026-27 at 2.42 billion tonnes, down more than 2% from the upwardly revised estimate for 2025-26. "Tied to a projected reduction in harvested area and yields, world total grains output is projected to drop by 2% in 2026-27. With a high level of opening stocks offering only partial offsetting, total supply is forecast slightly down," it said.

 

The council has raised its monthly estimate for global grains output in 2025-26 by 10 million tonnes to 2.47 billion tonnes, mainly due to higher production of maize, which included a rise in output in India, and higher production of wheat in Russia and Australia.

 

The ongoing military hostilities in West Asia have sparked concerns about risks to agricultural supply chains, particularly related to rising fertiliser costs and higher fuel prices, the council said. Although most grains and oilseed producers in the Northern Hemisphere are assumed to be sufficiently well covered heading into the spring fieldwork period, an extended crisis in West Asia might affect planting decisions elsewhere later in the year, with parts of Asia and Africa especially dependent on Gulf fertiliser supplies, the council said. More broadly, a prolonged disruption could lead to a revaluation of fertiliser application rates, with possible implications for yields and crop quality, it said.

 

The council has raised its projection for global consumption in 2026-27 to a record 2.44 billion tonnes from the upwardly revised 2.42 billion tonnes in 2025-26. Consumption is forecast to increase for a fourth year in a row led by gains in food and industrial uses, the council said.

 

Carryover stocks for 2026–27 are projected at 609 million tonnes, down from the slight upward revised estimate of 632 million tonnes in 2025-26. "After an accumulation in the prior season, carryover stocks could tighten again, while trade is forecast to be little changed overall," the council said. Global trade of foodgrains in 2026-27 is seen at 448 million tonnes, marginally down from 449 million tonnes in 2025-26.

 

Global wheat production in 2026-27 is estimated at 822 million tonnes, down from an upwardly revised 845 million tonnes in 2025-26. The council has pegged consumption of the grain in 2026-27 at 829 tonnes, higher than 825 tonnes in 2025-26. The forecast for carryover wheat stocks in 2026-27 has been cut by 7 million tonnes from the current year to 276 million tonnes.

 

The council has projected maize production to fall to 1.30 billion tonnes in 2026-27, from the upwardly revised 1.32 billion tonnes in the current year, while consumption is seen at 1.32 billion tonnes for the same period, up from 1.30 billion tonnes in the current year. Trade is seen at 198 million tonnes in 2026-27, higher by 3 million tonnes from 2025-26.

 

The global rice production forecast for 2026-27 has been raised to 548 million tonnes from the upwardly revised 544 million tonnes in the current year. Based on modest acreage gains and trend yields, world production is projected at a peak in 2026-27, the council said. "Increases are also predicted for both consumption and trade, rising to fresh highs, while global stocks are seen expanding on accumulation in India," it said.

 

Rice trade in 2026-27 is seen at 61 million tonnes, up from 60 million tonnes in the current year. Consumption of the grain is projected to increase to 545 million tonnes next year, up from 537 million estimated in 2025-26 due to growing populations in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, the council said. The carryover stock estimate for 2026-27 has been raised to 197 million tonnes from 193 million tonnes pegged for the current year.

 

Global soybean production in 2026-27 is pegged at a record 442 million tonnes, up from the downwards revision of 426 million tonnes in 2025-26. For the current year, global soybean output is seen 2 million tonnes, lower on month due to fractional downward adjustments made to total use and stocks, the council said. "Looking ahead, a record world outturn is tentatively anticipated in 2026-27 and, given heavy availabilities, processing is projected at a new peak, as stocks edge higher," the council said. Carryover stocks for next year are estimated at 79 million tonnes, up from 78 million tonnes in 2025-26.

 

Soybean trade is also projected to rise to 190 million tonnes in 2026-27 from 187 million tonnes in the current year. "Traded volumes could expand by 2% on shipment flows between South America and Asia," the council said.  End

 

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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