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Informist, Wednesday, Mar. 18, 2026

 

MUMBAI – The La Nina event is currently weakening and all climate models, including the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's model, indicate a return to neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions in early Southern Hemisphere autumn, the bureau said in its fortnightly report Tuesday. All climate models indicate a shift to El Nino from neutral conditions by the end of Southern Hemisphere winter, though there is a variation in the timing of the transition — some suggest an El Nino development as early as May, while others see the onset delayed till late winter, the bureau said. 

 

In the Southern Hemisphere, autumn takes place from March to June, while winter is from June to September. For a sustained El Nino event, ocean-atmosphere coupling — where the ocean and atmosphere act to reinforce each other — is required, the bureau said.

 

La Nina is close to its end, with warmer sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific Ocean being sustained for the past four weeks, the bureau said. As of Sunday, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation index value was (-)0.53 degrees Celsius. Sea surface temperatures are expected to increase more, which suggests a further decline of La Nina in the coming weeks.

 

Ocean surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific between (-)0.80 degrees Celsius and 0.80 degrees Celsius are considered to be neutral conditions, while sustained values below (-)0.8 degrees Celsius for at least three months are considered indicative of a La Nina event. Sustained values above 0.8 degrees Celsius are associated with an El Nino event.

 

As of Sunday, the 30-day Southern Oscillation Index value was 14.8, above the La Nina threshold of 7, the bureau said. The Southern Oscillation Index tracks the atmospheric part of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation, comparing the difference from average air pressure in the western Pacific, measured in Darwin, Australia, to the difference from average pressure in the central Pacific, measured in Tahiti.

 

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is linked to drier and hotter weather in India, while La Nina results in more favourable rainfall. 

 

As of Sunday, the Indian Ocean Dipole index was 0.53 degrees Celsius, above the positive Indian Ocean Dipole index of 0.40 degrees Celsius, the bureau said. Though the index has remained above the positive index threshold for eight consecutive weeks, it has been heavily influenced by tropical activity in the east of Indian Ocean, the bureau said. Therefore, it is not considered a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event, it said. Climate model forecasts expect the index to return to neutral in mid-autumn, it said.

 

The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole leads to less rainfall in India, while a positive index leads to more rainfall and a neutral phase signals no significant change in precipitation.

 

Currently, weak La Nina conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific, with sea surface temperatures remaining below normal across much of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, the India Meteorological Department said. Forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System, along with other climate models, indicate these conditions are expected to gradually weaken during the upcoming season, the Indian weather bureau said. There is also a 60% chance of neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions forming in Feb-Apr, it said.  End

 

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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