Expected transition
El Nino seen Jun-Aug, likely to persist till end of 2026 - US climate centre
This story was originally published at 12:17 IST on 17 March 2026
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MUMBAI – A transition from La Nina to neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions is expected next month, with the latter stretching through late Northern Hemisphere spring before transitioning to an El Nino event, the Climate Prediction Centre of the US' National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in a report last week. Neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions are favoured during May-Jun, with a 55% chance, while El Nino is likely to emerge during Jun-Aug, with a 62% chance. El Nino conditions are expected to persist till the end of 2026, the centre said.
La Nina continued in February, with below-average sea surface temperatures persisting in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean. The equatorial subsurface temperature index continued to increase, reflecting the strengthening of above-average subsurface temperatures across the Pacific, the centre said.
Even though the forecasts of climate models are relatively lower during this time of the year, the increasing chances of an El Nino event are supported by a large amount of heat in the subsurface ocean and the expected weakening of the low-level trade winds. If El Nino emerges, the potential strength of such an event remains uncertain, with a one-in-three chance that it would be "strong" during Oct-Dec, the centre said.
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is linked to drier and hotter weather in India, while La Nina results in more favourable rainfall.
According to the India Meteorological Department, there is a 60% chance of neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions forming in Feb-Apr. End
Reported by Shreya Shetty
Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj
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