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Informist, Tuesday, Mar. 17, 2026

 

MUMBAI – The APEC Climate Center's El Nino-Southern Oscillation alert remains in "El Nino WATCH," with chances of an El Nino event developing in the coming seasons, the centre said in its outlook for April to September. The probability of an El Nino event during the first half of the forecast period have risen to 84.6%, the centre said. Chances of such an event during Jul-Sept have increased further to 97.4%, it said.

 

Positive sea surface temperature anomalies are expected along the equator during the forecast period, which indicates the development of El Nino. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation index value is expected to be 0.47 degrees Celsius in April, before increasing to 1.75 degrees Celsius by September, the centre said. For La Nina to emerge, surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean should meet or fall below the threshold of (-)0.8 degrees Celsius. For El Nino, temperatures should be at or above 0.5 degrees Celsius.

 

Sea surface temperature anomaly is produced by subtracting the long-term mean sea surface temperature from a daily sea surface temperature value. A positive anomaly means that the daily value is warmer than the long-term average for that day; a negative anomaly means it is cooler than the average. A positive sea surface temperature anomaly usually indicates the formation of El Nino.

 

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is the oscillation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino-Southern Oscillation-neutral conditions generally mean near average rainfall conditions for India, with the monsoon performing close to its historical average. La Nina is usually associated with good rainfall over India, while El Nino is associated with a drier climate and drought conditions.

 

During Apr-Jun, the centre sees an enhanced probability of above-normal temperatures and a slight probability of below-normal rainfall in India. In Jul-Sept, there is a "strongly" enhanced probability of above-normal temperatures and an enhanced probability of below-normal precipitation in India, the centre said. This suggests below normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon, which spans from June to September.

 

Currently, weak La Nina conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific, with sea surface temperatures remaining below normal across much of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, the India Meteorological Department said. Forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System, along with other climate models, indicate these conditions are expected to gradually weaken during the upcoming season, the Indian weather bureau said. There is also a 60% chance of neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions forming in Feb-Apr, it said.  End

 

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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