India Bullion
Down as concerns over inflation dim US Fed rate cut hopes
This story was originally published at 16:37 IST on 16 March 2026
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Monday, Mar. 16, 2026
By Reshma Ravi
MUMBAI – Futures contracts of gold and silver fell on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India and the COMEX Monday due to fading expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve amid surging crude oil prices, which has renewed concern of a rise in inflation, analysts said.
At 1602 IST, the most-active April GOLD contract on the MCX was down 2% at INR 155,400 per 10 grams. The most-active April contract on COMEX was down 2% at $4,985.2 per ounce. The most-active May SILVER contract on the MCX was down 4% at INR 248,999 per kilogram. The corresponding contract on COMEX was down 5% at $77.43 per ounce.
"Supply chain disruptions stemming from the Iran conflict are increasingly viewed as re-inflationary, prompting markets to scale back expectations of policy easing, with some participants beginning to tentatively price in the possibility of tighter monetary policy," Kaynat Chainwala, assistant vice president commodity research at Kotak Securities, said in a note.
On Friday, US President Donald Trump authorised strikes on Iranian military targets on Kharg Island and warned that he could order attacks on the country's oil installations there. On Saturday, Trump urged China, France, Japan, South Korea, Britain, and other countries affected by the restrictions on shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to collaborate in restoring the shipping route. Trump, who said the US would be hitting Iran "very hard" this week, added that he was insisting that other countries help in safeguarding the Strait of Hormuz, noting that Washington was engaging in discussions with various nations regarding regulation of the vital shipping route for oil and gas.
In a different interview with the Financial Times, he cautioned that the North Atlantic Treaty Oragnization could have a very bad future if US allies do not help in opening the Strait.
"...with no signs of de-escalation in the ongoing US–Iran standoff, geopolitical risk remains the dominant market driver in the near term," Chainwala said.
Market participants now cautiously await the US Federal Open Market Committee's meeting and its summary of economic projections on Wednesday. "Now, the market is not expecting any rate cut from the March meeting, and chances for this year's rate cut fell to 80%," Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ Research, said in a note.
Outlook for the rest of the session:
--MCX gold seen at INR 153,000–INR 158,000 per 10 grams
--COMEX gold seen at $4,920.0–$5,050.0 an ounce
--MCX silver seen at INR 240,000-INR 255,000 per kg
--COMEX silver seen at $74.00-$81.00 an ounce
End
US$1 = INR 92.42
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Tanima Banerjee
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