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Informist, Thursday, Mar. 12, 2026

 

By Reshma Ravi

 

MUMBAI – Futures contracts of gold on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India rose Thursday because of a weak rupee against the dollar. However, the gains could be capped due to dampened hopes of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve as higher crude oil prices have renewed concerns about inflation, analysts said.  

 

The rupee Thursday closed at 92.1900, down 0.2% against the dollar. Earlier in the day, the rupee fell to a record low of 92.3600. When the rupee depreciates against the dollar, prices of gold in the domestic market adjust as the precious metal is priced in rupees.

 

At 1640 IST, the most-active April GOLD contract on the MCX was up 0.2% at INR 162,054 per 10 grams. The most-active April contract on COMEX was up 0.2% at $5,187.8 per ounce. The most-active May SILVER contract on the MCX was up 2% at INR 273,757 per kilogram. The corresponding contract on COMEX was up 2% at $87.42 per ounce.

 

"...surging oil prices heightened inflation concerns, reducing expectations for near-term interest rate cuts by the Fed," ICICI Direct said in a report. Iranian military officials said the world should be ready for oil at $200 a barrel as it attacked three ships trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz, including two in Iraq's territorial waters. The key waterway has been shut since the US and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, which has severely disrupted flows of oil, gas, and other commodities. "Iran has deployed about a dozen mines in the Strait of Hormuz, according to sources, a move that could complicate efforts to reopen the narrow waterway, a key route for global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments," SMC Global Securities said in a report.

 

Crude oil prices jumped again and increased inflation fears and limited gains of both precious metals, Manoj Jain, director of Prithvi Finmart, said in a note. Meanwhile, "we expect gold and silver prices to remain volatile this week amid volatility in the dollar index, the US-Iran war and volatility in crude oil prices," Jain added.

 

Additionally, BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, has raised its average silver price forecast to $93 per ounce in 2026 from an average of $40 per ounce in 2025. Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments in West Asia are expected to drive silver prices in 2026. However, BMI does not expect prices to immediately return to the record high levels witnessed in January given the easing tightness in the physical market.

 

Outlook for the rest of the session:

--MCX gold seen at INR 160,000–INR 164,000 per 10 grams

--COMEX gold seen at $5,140.0–$5,220.0 an ounce

--MCX silver seen at INR 270,000-INR 278,000 per kg

--COMEX silver seen at $84.00-$90.00 an ounce

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 92.19

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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