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Informist, Wednesday, Mar. 11, 2026

 

By Pallavi Singhal

 

NEW DELHI – India's pulses market is unlikely to see any immediate impact from the ongoing war in West Asia, with supplies remaining comfortable due to a strong domestic crop and continued imports from regions unaffected by the conflict, Bimal Kothari, chairman of the India Pulses and Grains Association, told Informist.

 

The conflict, if it persists, could have only an indirect impact on prices through higher freight and insurance costs, but the supply situation for India remains stable for now, Kothari said on the sidelines of the 4th Plant Based Foods Summit in New Delhi on Tuesday.

 

India is looking at a good crop this year, particularly in the rabi season, with chana production looking strong and other pulses also performing well, Kothari said, adding that government procurement operations have already begun and domestic availability remains comfortable.

 

Still, India is expected to import around 5 million tonnes of pulses this year, he said, noting that most supplies come from Canada, Australia, Myanmar, and East Africa – regions that are not directly affected by the conflict. "Supply itself will not be a constraint," Kothari said, explaining that shipments from Canada and Australia travel through the Pacific route and, therefore, avoid conflict-affected areas.

 

However, he cautioned that the war could still influence prices indirectly. Higher crude oil prices might push up freight rates, while shipping companies have begun charging a war risk premium, he said. Some shipments moving through the Red Sea, particularly trade flows linked to West Asia and Europe, could also face disruptions if tensions persist.

 

So far, Kothari said, there has been little impact on prices even though the conflict has continued for several days, though some effects could emerge in the coming months if freight and insurance costs rise. The conflict in West Asia is currently in its second week, with no signs of de-escalation. 

 

PULSES IMPORT POLICY

Against this backdrop, Kothari said the industry expects the government to continue its existing pulses import policy beyond Mar. 31, when several current measures are due to expire. Free imports of tur and urad are likely to be extended for another year, he said.

 

However, masur, which currently carries a 10% import duty, could see some increase because domestic prices are significantly below the minimum support price, he said. Masur prices have been hovering between INR 5,700 and INR 6,000 per 100 kg, significantly below the minimum support price of INR 7,000 per 100 kg.

 

For chana, which also attracts 10% duty, he does not expect major policy changes despite weak prices as the government would focus on procurement to rebuild its depleted buffers and support farmers, he said. 

 

CHANA SCENARIO

According to Kothari, chana production this year could reach around 12 million tonnes, higher than 11.45 million tonnes last year, suggesting a comfortable domestic supply situation. With arrivals in mandis currently strong and crop quality reported to be good, the government is likely to have better success in procurement compared to last year, he said. The government has planned to procure about 2.3 million tonnes of chana, though the actual procurement may be closer to 1.5 million tonnes, depending on the pace of arrivals and market conditions, he added.

 

Chana prices in mandis are currently around INR 48–INR 51 per kg, significantly below the MSP of about INR 57 per kg, which makes government procurement important to support farmers, Kothari said.

 

TUR CROP

While chana output looks strong, Kothari said concerns about tur production in parts of Karnataka and Maharashtra due to weather disruptions appear to be localised and unlikely to significantly affect overall output.

 

The government has already procured about 150,000 tonnes of tur so far and holds roughly 650,000 tonnes of stocks from last year, he said. If procurement reaches 300,000–400,000 tonnes, total government stocks could rise to around 1 million tonnes, which should be adequate.

 

More broadly, he said several pulses are currently being sold below MSP, making this an appropriate time for the government to step up procurement and build buffer stocks. According to Kothari, tur is being sold around INR 72–INR 75 per kg, against an MSP of INR 80, while urad is trading at INR 65–INR 70 per kg compared to the MSP of INR 78. 

 

"This situation makes government procurement particularly important to ensure farmers receive remunerative prices," he said.

 

DEMAND OUTLOOK, SUPPLY

Looking ahead, Kothari said demand for pulses is expected to rise significantly in the coming years. Referring to projections by the NITI Aayog, he said India's pulses demand could reach around 46 million tonnes by 2030. Even now, India consumes about 31–32 million tonnes of pulses annually, while production is around 26 million tonnes, leaving a structural gap that requires imports of roughly 5–6 million tonnes every year, he said.

 

Meeting that demand will require sustained increase in domestic production, though India has already demonstrated that such growth is possible, he said. Given global uncertainties, Kothari emphasised the importance of maintaining adequate buffer stocks. "We have suggested that this is the right time for the government to build a pulses buffer stock which must be at least 5 million tonnes," he said, adding that industry groups have suggested roughly half of the buffer could be held in chana.

 

Building such stocks has been difficult in recent years because of weaker production. El Nio conditions in 2023 affected several crops, forcing India to import about 7.3 million tonnes of pulses in 2024–25, a record level.

 

Kothari says pulses imports in the ongoing financial year are likely to be around 5 million tonnes, and could remain in the range of 4–5 million tonnes in the following year, depending on domestic production and weather conditions.

 

SHARP PRICE RISE UNLIKELY

Despite global uncertainties and projections of El Nino by several weather agencies, Kothari said he does not expect a sharp rise in pulses prices this year unless there is a major escalation in geopolitical tensions or extreme weather disruptions. 

 

Domestic production remains strong and imports will continue to supplement supply, he said, adding that the government is also focused on controlling food inflation.

 

"The only impact we may see is because of freight and insurance costs if the war continues," Kothari said, adding that overall, the year should not be difficult for farmers, consumers or the industry.  End

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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