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Informist, Wednesday, Mar. 11, 2026

 

MUMBAI – The price of steel longs and flats globally are likely to average at $625 per tonne in 2026, up from $600 per tonne in 2025 and higher than the current price of $610 per tonne, according to BMI, a Fitch Solutions company. This comes on the back of lower global steel production estimate, particularly in China.

 

With the Chinese government curbing excess manufacturing capacity, steel production in the country is expected to fall 4% on year to 922 million tonnes in 2026, tightening the global steel market. This follows an estimated 4.4?cline in steel output to 960 million tonnes in 2025 – the first time since 2019 that China's steel production fell below 1 billion tonnes, it said in a release.

 

"In 2026, we forecast a marginal 0.7% year-on-year decrease in global steel production due to weaker output from China. Steel production in emerging markets like India, the world's second largest producer of crude steel, will show robust growth. However, downside risks are still present, as the deteriorated global industrial and economic outlook will weigh on steel production, as will the newly imposed 50% tariffs on US steel imports," BMI said.

 

Over the longer term, BMI expects global steel production to grow at a 1.0% compounded annual growth rate over 2026 to 2034, with ex-China global steel production growing at 2.7?GR. "We see production growth tapering off towards the end of our forecast period, as the steel intensity of GDP in large markets decreases," it said.

 

On the demand side, the agency said it expects global steel consumption in 2026 to decline 0.3% on year, with strong demand growth in India offsetting some of the downward pressure. "At the same time, we note that global steel consumption remains weak, with the manufacturing sector continuing to drag on growth in major markets. While the steel intensity of GDP in large markets may decrease, decarbonisation, elevated infrastructure investment in developed markets like the US, and stronger growth in India could offset the peak of demand in China and its expected stagnation and decline after 2026."

 

Referring to the ongoing climate agenda to decarbonise steel, BMI said it will create opportunities for the steel sector as end markets shift towards greener steel. Higher rates of recycling and the adoption of new technologies for steelmaking are anticipated in response to electric vehicle adoption and urbanisation.

 

Elaboratingly, BMI highlighted the start of a paradigm shift in the steel market where 'green' steel produced at electric arc furnaces takes centerstage at the expense of traditional steel produced at blast furnaces.  End

 

US$1 = INR 91.94

 

Reported by Abhijit Doshi

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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