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Informist, Thursday, Mar. 5, 2026

By Kabir Sharma

MUMBAI – The rupee closed sharply higher against the dollar on Thursday as banks persistently sold the greenback on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. Banks sold dollars on behalf of the RBI even before the spot market opened, helping the rupee to surge against the dollar at opening, they said. 

"The RBI reminded everyone that they are in-charge here," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "Their main motive was to demotivate speculators who were betting against the rupee," he said.   

The rupee settled at 91.6000 a dollar on Thursday, 55 paise higher than its previous close of 92.1500. Other Asian currencies rose 0.3-1.0% against the greenback, with the Malaysian ringgit and Philippines peso rising the most.

The Indian unit was trading at around 92.12 a dollar level in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market in pre-open, but just a few minutes before the spot market opened at 0900 IST, the RBI aggressively sold dollars to bring the pair down to 91.57 a dollar at open, dealers said. Market participants estimated that the central bank sold around $4 billion to $5 billion in the currency market Thursday. 

Some banks sold dollars for foreign fund inflows into Indian equities, which supported the rupee, dealers said. Indian equities rose, tracking overnight gains on Wall Street, which supported the rupee, dealers said. The benchmark Nifty 50 and the Sensex ended over 1% higher each on Thursday. 

A rise in oil prices limited the gains for the Indian unit, dealers said. Oil prices rose to their highest level in over a year as the conflict led to a near shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. The channel acts as a conduit for over 20% of the world's oil supply. At 1601 IST, the May contract of Brent crude oil traded 1.9% higher at $82.94 per barrel.

In the last hour of trade, the rupee appreciated more and touched the day's high of 91.40 a dollar on reports that Iran is ready to abandon its nuclear programme on the condition that the US presents a "satisfactory" alternative offer. However, the offer was made before the US attacked Iran, the West Asian country clarified. 

Dealers said they remain cautious of any escalation in hostilities in West Asia as any development there is expected to move the market here, they said. 

FORWARDS

Dollar-rupee forward premiums fell sharply across tenures Thursday as exporters sold dollars for forward delivery after aggressive intervention by the RBI in the spot market, dealers said. Dealers speculated that the RBI also sold forward dollars, which too weighed on the premiums. 

"They have intervened in spot and in forwards too," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "They did not like that the premiums were trending so high, so they recived (premiums) in forwards as well,"

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.65%, shaprly lower than Wednesday's close of 2.80%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 242.57 paise, against 259.55 paise Wednesday. 

OUTLOOK

On Friday, the rupee is likely to take cues from the movement of crude oil prices in view of the evolving develpments related to hostilities in West Asia, dealers said. The local unit may also track movement in the dollar index. The RBI's intervention strategy will remain the key focus of the market, dealers said. 

Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee pair, which may weigh on the Indian currency. Most market participants expect the RBI to intervene through dollar sales and prevent sharp depreciation of the rupee. Some expect the central bank to ramp up its intervention if the Indian currency inches close to 92.00 a dollar. 

The rupee is likely to move in a range of 91.40-92.00 against the dollar on Friday. Immediate technical support for the domestic currency is pegged at 92.00.

India Rupee - World FX: Dollar eases from 4-mo high; euro stable before data

MUMBAI – The dollar index eased from a four-month high touched earlier in the session on Thursday as reports gave way to hope that Iran is ready to abandon its nuclear programme on the condition that the US presents a satisfactory alternative offer. However, the offer was made before the US attacked Iran, the West Asian country clarified. The dollar index was at 98.94 against a basket of currencies at 1520 IST. The index closed at 98.78 Wednesday and 99.07 Tuesday.

The dollar rose earlier, supported by upbeat data from the US. Data released Wednesday by the ADP showed private sector employment increased by 63,000 jobs last month, more than the 48,000 forecast in a Dow Jones poll. The US non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 56.1 in February, the highest reading since July 2022, while inflationary pressures ebbed, according to data released by the Institute of Supply Management Wednesday.

The euro was largely unchanged against the dollar ahead of the release of key retail sales data. Annual retail sales are expected to have increased 1.7% in January, following the 1.3% rise in December, while the monthly figure is expected at 0.3%, against a 0.5% decline the previous month.

The pound sterling was down 0.2% against the dollar. The British currency faces pressures amid fears that the UK economy could face stagflation risks due to higher energy prices. Stagflation means a situation in which inflation accelerates with economic growth and employment conditions remaining stagnant.  (Kabir Sharma)

India Rupee:Remains up on FX inflows, RBI dlr sales; high crude prices weigh

MUMBAI – The rupee remained sharply higher against the dollar as banks sold the greenback for foreign fund inflows and on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said.

"It looked like short on rupee will be a one-way trade, but the RBI came in hard and aggressive today in pre-market and drove the rupee back to 91.25," a dealer at a private bank said. 

Some banks sold dollars for foreign fund inflows into Indian equities, which also supported the local unit, dealers said. At 1249 IST, the benchmark Nifty 50 and the Sensex were 0.5% higher.   

Easing of the dollar index also supported the rupee, dealers said. The dollar index eased from an over three-month high hit earlier this week and was at 98.98 against a basket of currencies at 1252 IST. The index closed at 98.78 Wednesday and 99.07 Tuesday.

However, a sharp increase in crude oil prices remained a pain point for market participants, they said. Oil prices rose to their highest level in over a year as the conflict led to a near shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. At 1250 IST, the May contract of Brent crude oil traded 2.7% higher at $83.49 per barrel.  

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 91.50 and 92.00 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 92.00 a dollar. (Kabir Sharma)

India Rupee: Premiums steady as mkt cautious; surge in spot rupee weighs

MUMBAI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums were steady across tenures on Thursday as market participants exercised caution due to the ongoing conflict in West Asia, dealers said. However, aggressive dollar sales by the Reserve Bank of India in the spot market weighed on premiums, dealers said. 

"Market was expecting some intervention but the quantum was a surprise," a dealer at a brokerage firm said. "Everyone took a step back from trades as RBI is deciding the direction now," he said. 

The Indian unit was trading around 92.12 a dollar level in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market, but just a few minutes before the spot market opened at 0900 IST, the RBI aggressively sold dollars to bring the pair down to 91.57 a dollar at open, dealers said. 

At 1238 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.80%, unchanged from Monday's close. On an absolute basis, the premium was 257.16 paise, against 259.55 paise Wednesday. (Kabir Sharma)

India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Mar 5

MUMBAI – At 1210 IST, the rupee was at 91.6275 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 91.5700 a dollar, against the previous close of 92.1500 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

(Kabir Sharma)

India Rupee: Surges on RBI dlr sales in offshore mkt; high oil prices weigh

MUMBAI – The rupee surged against the dollar Thursday as banks sold the greenback on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India before the spot market opened, dealers said. "They sold heavily in NDF (non-deliverable forwards) to bring it (dollar-rupee) down," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "We were expecting it to open below 92 but they sold in the last few minutes."  

The Indian unit was trading at around 92.12 a dollar level in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market, but just a few minutes before the spot market opened at 0900 IST, the RBI aggressively sold dollars to bring the pair down to 91.57 a dollar at open, dealers said. 

However, dealers said they remain cautious of any escalation in hostilities in West Asia as any development there is expected to move the market here, they said. Indian equities rose, tracking overnight gains on Wall Street, which supported the rupee, dealers said. At 0950 IST, the benchmark Nifty 50 and the Sensex were up 0.5% each. 

An ease in the dollar index also supported the rupee, while a sharp surge in crude oil prices weighed on it, dealers said. The dollar index eased from an over three-month high hit earlier this week and was at 98.81 against a basket of currencies at 1005 IST. The index closed at 98.78 Wednesday and 99.07 Tuesday.

Oil prices rose to their highest level in over a year as the conflict led to a near shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. The channel acts as a conduit for over 20% of the world's oil supply.

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 91.50 and 92.00 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 92.00 a dollar. (Kabir Sharma)

India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Mar 5

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Wednesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

(Kabir Sharma)

India Rupee - Asia FX: Most up as dollar eases; West Asia conflict in focus

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies rose against the dollar Thursday as the greenback eased after market participants hoped that the West Asia hostilities may ease, and the war may not last as long as anticipated earlier. However, a surge in crude oil prices kept the oil-dependent regional currencies in check.  

The dollar index eased from an over three-month high hit earlier this week and was at 98.81 against a basket of currencies at 0823 IST. The index closed at 98.78 Wednesday and 99.07 Tuesday. The index eased from its earlier highs as investors believed the war may not last as long as anticipated earlier, dealers said. 

The offshore Chinese yuan was up 0.1% against the dollar. China set its economic growth aim for 2026 at 4.5%-5%, a slight downgrade from the 5% pace achieved last year, which leaves room for greater, albeit not decisive, efforts to curb industrial overcapacity and rebalance the economy.

The Australian dollar was up 0.1% against the dollar. The Australian dollar rose as comments from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock gave way to hopes of a rate hike in the near future. "Board uncertain if financial conditions are sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to midpoint of target in a reasonable timeframe," Bullock said. 

The Philippines peso rose 0.2% against the dollar. The peso fell to a near one-month low against the dollar on Wednesday as the West Asia conflict continued to weigh on market sentiment.

The Taiwan dollar was up 0.1% against the dollar. Bucking the trend, the South Korean won was down 0.1% against the greenback.  (Kabir Sharma)

End

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

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