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Informist, Wednesday, Mar. 4, 2026

 

By Kabir Sharma

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee erased some losses but still ended at a record low against the dollar as risk appetite took a massive hit due to escalation in the conflict in West Asia, dealers said. The Indian unit fell below they key level of 92 per dollar for the first time on Wednesday. Some banks sold dollars on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, which erased losses for the rupee, they said. 

 

"Nothing but the war is moving the market," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Oil and other commodities are also very volatile, causing problems for importers," he said. 

 

The rupee settled at 92.1500 a dollar on Wednesday, 68 paise lower than its previous close of 91.4700. Other Asian currencies fell 0.3-1.3% against the greenback, with the Thai baht and the Philippines peso being the worst hit.

 

Persistent strikes by the US and Israel on Iran have targeted government, military, and civilian facilities as the conflict extends to Lebanon, where Israel has been carrying out heavy bombardment. A fire broke out close to the US consulate in Dubai on Tuesday as Iranian counterstrikes persisted in the Gulf, heightening tensions in West Asia.

 

The rupee fell to a record low of 92.3025 against the dollar as the fighting in West Asia showed no signs of abating, dealers said. Israel launched a fresh wave of attacks on Iran and Lebanon late Tuesday. The toll in Iran has risen to nearly 800, according to government estimates. Iran bombed US embassies and military bases in the region and some oil production and processing facilities as well as ports have been closed.

 

The dollar remained firm because of safe-haven demand, which also weighed on the local currency, dealers said. At 1559 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.15, against Tuesday's close of 99.07 and sharply higher than 98.55 Monday. The index had risen to 99.68 Tuesday.

 

Oil prices rose more than $2 Wednesday as the conflict disrupted production in West Asia and stopped exports from the area, which weighed on the rupee, dealers said. Banks also bought the greeback for foreign fund outlfows from Indian equities, which also exerted pressure. 

 

However, the Reserve Bank of India sold dollars throughout the day to keep a check on the sharp fall of the Indian unit, dealers said. The central bank sold around 92.15 a dollar level in the first half of the day and near 92.30 a dollar towards the end of the session, dealers said. 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	92.1500	92.0275	92.0275	92.3025	91.4700
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	259.55	261.46	266.50	258.61	254.88

 

FORWARDS

Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose across all tenures Wednesday as importers bought forward dollars as the Indian currency fell sharply against the greenback in the spot market, dealers said. 

 

The rupee fell to record lows on Wednesday as escalation in hostilities in West Asia dampened sentiment for emerging market currencies and supported the dollar, dealers said. A rise in crude oil prices because of the US-Israel military attacks on Iran also weighed on the Indian currency, they said.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.80%, higher than Monday's close of 2.79%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 259.55 paise, against 254.88 paise Monday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Thursday, the rupee is likely to take cues from the movement of crude oil prices in view of the evolving develpments related to hostilities in West Asia, dealers said. The local unit may also track movement in the dollar index. 

 

Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee pair, which may weigh on the Indian currency. Most market participants expect the RBI to intervene through dollar sales and prevent sharp depreciation of the rupee. Some expect the central bank to ramp up its intervention if the Indian currency inches closer to the record low of 92.30 a dollar. 

 

The rupee is likely to move in a range of 91.80-92.30 against the dollar on Thursday. Immediate technical support for the domestic currency is pegged at 92.30.

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India Rupee: At record low as oil cos stock up on dlrs; RBI dlr sales aid

 

	AT 1426 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	92.2850	92.0275	92.0275	92.3025	91.4700

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee was at a record low against the dollar as importers and oil marketing companies bought the greenback after risk sentiment was hit due the ongoing hostilities in West Asia, dealers said. "Panic buying by oil marketing companies is driving the market up," a dealer at a private bank said.

 

Crude oil prices rose by more than $2 per barrel Wednesday as attacks between Iran and Israel disrupted production in West Asia and stopped exports from the region, which weighed on the rupee, dealers said. A surge in the dollar index also weighed on the rupee, they said.

 

At 1424 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.15, against Tuesday's close of 99.07 and sharply higher than 98.55 Monday. The index had risen to 99.68 Tuesday.

 

Banks also bought dollars for foreign fund outflows from Indian equities. However, some banks sold the greenback on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, which supported the local currency.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 91.80 and 92.30 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 92.30 a dollar. (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Premiums up as importers buy fwd dlrs as rupee hits record low

 

	AT 1256 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	92.2700	92.0275	92.0275	92.3025	91.4700
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	262.46	261.46	266.50	260.96	254.88

 

NEW DELHI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose across all tenures Wednesday as importers bought forward dollars as the Indian currency fell sharply against the greenback in the spot market, dealers said. 

 

"Everyone is hedging at any reasonable level," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Importers are paying because they want to book (crude) oil at current prices," they said.

 

The rupee fell below the crucial 92 per-dollar level Wednesday as escalation in hostilities in West Asia dampened sentiment for emerging market currencies and supported the dollar, dealers said. A rise in crude oil prices because of the US-Israel military attacks on Iran also weighed on the Indian currency, they said.

 

At 1243 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.83%, sharply higher than Monday's close of 2.79%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 262.46 paise, against 254.88 paise Monday. (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Mar 4

 

NEW DELHI – At 1155 IST, the rupee was at 92.2375 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 92.0275 a dollar, against the previous close of 91.4700 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	92.50	92.30	92.00	91.80
Private-sector bank	92.60	92.50	92.00	91.50
Brokerage firm	92.40	92.30	92.00	91.75
Brokerage firm	92.50	92.30	92.00	91.80

 

(Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most down as risk appetite hit on West Asia conflict

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies fell against the dollar Wednesday as risk appetite took a massive hit after tensions in West Asia escalated. The dollar index surged on the back of safe haven appeal, which weighed on regional currencies. 

 

At 1002 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.15, against Tuesday's close of 99.07 and sharply higher than 98.55 Monday. The index had risen to 99.68 on Tuesday.

 

Tensions in West Asia escalated and showed no signs of slowing down after the US and Israel Saturday launched joint military strikes on the Iranian capital, Tehran, killing the country's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei. US and Israel's attacks on Iran and Lebanon continued, while Tehran continued retaliatory attacks on Israel and US targets in West Asia for a fourth day.

 

The Indonesian rupiah was down 0.2% against the dollar. Indonesia's central bank stepped in to safeguard the rupiah as emerging markets faced challenges due to the West Asia conflict. "Bank Indonesia will continue to be present in the market to maintain exchange rate stability and prevent the impact of the escalating Middle East conflict," Senior Deputy Governor Destry Damayanti, said in a statement Wednesday.

 

The Philippines peso led the losses and was down 0.3% against the dollar. The peso sank further against the dollar on Wednesday as the escalating Iran conflict pushed up oil prices, fanning inflation concerns. 

 

The Malaysian ringgit was down 0.1% against the dollar. The Thai Baht fell 0.3%. Bucking the trend, the South Korean won rose 0.2% against the dollar. (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Falls below 92/$ to record low on West Asia conflict, dlr surge

 

	AT 1001 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	92.1675	92.0275	92.0275	92.1825	91.4700
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	266.14	261.46	266.14	261.46	254.88

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee fell below the crucial 92 per-dollar level Wednesday as an escalation in the hostilities in West Asia dampened sentiment for emerging currencies and supported the dollar, dealers said. A rise in crude oil prices on the back of the conflict also weighed on the Indian currency, they said.

 

"Oil is running high as if there is no tomorrow," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "If there are no sales from the RBI, it can fall to any level as risk has taken a massive beating." 

 

The rupee fell further against the dollar to a record low of 92.1825 as the fighting in West Asia showed no signs of abating, dealers said. Israel launched a fresh wave of attacks on Iran and Lebanon late Tuesday. The toll in Iran has risen to nearly 800, according to government estimates. Iran bombed US embassies and military bases in the region. Some oil production and processing facilities as well as ports have been closed.

 

The dollar also remained firm because of safe-haven demand, which also weighed on the local currency, dealers said. At 0956 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.15, against Tuesday's close of 99.07 and sharply higher than 98.55 Monday. The index had risen to 99.68 Tuesday.

 

Oil prices rose by more than $1 Wednesday as the conflict disrupted production in West Asia and stopped exports from the area, which weighed on the rupee, dealers said.

 

However, some state-owned banks sold the greenback on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India to curb further depreciation of the Indian unit, which supported the currency, dealers said.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 91.80 and 92.30 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 92.20 a dollar. (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Mar 4

 

NEW DELHI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Wednesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	92.20	91.80
State-owned bank	92.35	91.85
Private-sector bank	92.25	91.80
Private-sector bank	92.50	91.50
Foreign bank	92.30	91.90
Brokerage firm	92.20	91.40
Brokerage firm	92.29	91.79
Brokerage firm	92.27	92.02

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Kabir Sharma)

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 92.15

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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