Russia Oil Supply
India Feb Russian crude oil imports up on month at 1.16 mln bpd, says Kpler
This story was originally published at 14:31 IST on 27 February 2026
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--Kpler: India Feb crude oil imports 5.5 mln bpd as of Tue, up 6% on month
--Kpler: India Feb crude oil imports from Russia 1.16 mln bpd as of Tuesday
--Kpler: India Feb oil imports from Russia up 6% on month, down 22% on year
--Kpler: India Feb oil imports from Saudi Arabia 1.11 mln bpd, up 44% on mo
--Kpler: Indian refiners made forward purchases of Venezuelan crude oil
--Kpler: Venezuelan crude oil expected to arrive on Indian shores in April
--Kpler: Venezuelan barrels at $5-$7/bbl discount; Russian oil at $8-$10/bbl
--Kpler:West Asia seen top oil supplier to India 2026 as refiners diversify
By Pallavi Singhal and Ashutosh Pati
NEW DELHI/MUMBAI – India crude oil imports from Russia were estimated around 1.16 million barrels per day in February, up about 6% from 1.09 million barrels per day in January and nearly 22% lower than 1.48 million barrels per day in February last year, data from Kpler showed.
Despite the modest sequential increase, inflows are expected to ease to roughly 800,000–1 million barrels per day in March, pointing to what Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst, refining and modelling at Kpler, described as a "short-term stabilisation rather than a return to the mid-2025 peak."
"We continue to expect Russia's share in India's crude slate to gradually stabilise at a structurally lower range in 2026 compared with 2024 and 2025, as commercial and policy frictions build," Ritolia said, signalling a measured recalibration rather than a sharp disengagement.
WEST ASIA STRENGTHENS POSITION
As Russian supplies moderated on a year-on-year basis, the shift was reflected in a broader rebalancing of India's crude slate, with West Asian producers and select Atlantic Basin suppliers emerging as the primary beneficiaries.
India's total crude oil imports averaged 5.5 million barrels per day in February. Within this, Saudi Arabia strengthened its position, with shipments rising to about 1.11 million barrels per day--up nearly 44% from 774,000 barrels per day in January--marking the sharpest month-on-month increase among major suppliers.
The UAE also saw a substantial rise in volumes, with imports climbing around 40% on month to 552,000 barrels per day. From the Atlantic Basin, Brazilian shipments increased nearly 60% to 353,000 barrels per day, reflecting refiners' efforts to diversify sourcing.
In contrast, US crude supplies declined more than 30% on month to 207,000 barrels per day, underscoring the shifting dynamics within India's import basket.
"The primary beneficiaries of lower Russian volumes have been Middle Eastern suppliers — notably Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar — alongside Atlantic Basin producers such as Brazil and Colombia," Ritolia said, adding that this underscores India's ongoing diversification strategy.
West Asia is expected to retain its dominance in India's sourcing mix through 2026, supported by geographic proximity, established term contracts, and scale advantages, he said. Refiners are likely to continue rebalancing their crude slate in favour of the region as part of supply security planning.
'BASELOAD' RUSSIAN VOLUMES LIKELY TOLERATED
According to Ritolia, there are growing signs of a more pragmatic understanding between the US and India that effectively allows India to continue importing "baseload" volumes of Russian crude, rather than pushing for a complete halt.
"The implied tolerance level appears to be around 800–1,000 barrels per day," he said, with near-term volatility driven by sanctions risk, shipping constraints and logistics.
The expectation is that India can maintain volumes required to support refinery operations and domestic fuel supply, while avoiding any material increase beyond that baseline, according to Ritolia. In practice, this points to Russian flows stabilising at a lower but persistent level in the short term, particularly until the India–US trade deal is formally finalised and signed, he said.
VENEZUELAN BARRELS ENTER THE MIX
Indian refiners have made forward purchases of Venezuelan crude expected to arrive in April, with most refiners looking to secure some Venezuelan barrels in upcoming cycles, Ritolia said.
Based on latest indications, Venezuelan crude is being offered at a landed discount of roughly $5–$7 per barrel to ICE Brent, compared with Russian crude currently landing at a deeper $8–$10 per barrel discount, as per him.
"Refiners are likely to consider additional Venezuelan volumes in subsequent cycles as part of broader crude sourcing diversification," Ritolia said. However, Venezuelan inflows are expected to remain opportunistic and episodic, constrained by sanctions compliance, insurance considerations and blending requirements. Russian crude, despite narrowing volumes, still offers deeper discounts relative to Brent, but its trajectory will increasingly depend on geopolitical dynamics rather than purely commercial incentives. End
US$1 = INR 90.95
Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury
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