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Informist, Thursday, Feb. 26, 2026

MUMBAI – Factors such as the tightening near-term supply, improving demand from India and firm US soyoil prices should keep palm oil prices supported, but ample global soybean supply and rising Chinese soyoil exports may limit the gains, according to a report by the Malaysian Palm Oil Council. Palm oil prices are therefore projected to consolidate within the range of RM4,000 – RM4,300 (INR 93,795 – INR 100,841) per tonne in March, it said.

Even as Malaysia's production of palm oil fell 13.8% on month to 1.58 million tonnes in January, its exports rose 11.4% to 1.48 million tonnes, according to the report.

The rise in exports in January, making it the second-highest monthly export volume in the past 12 months, was driven primarily by stronger demand from India and Egypt, with shipments to India reaching a 15-month high and exports to Egypt climbing to a 13-month high, it said.

"Palm oil fundamentals are expected to gradually improve in the coming months. Firmer Malaysian exports in Q1 and Indonesia's front-loading of shipments ahead of the March export levy hike, is projected to reduce palm oil inventories in both countries," the report said.

As palm oil's price competitiveness has increased since late 2025, the council expects India to shift a good part of its consumption of edible oils back to palm oil. Palm oil consumption in India is forecast to rise by 800,000 tonnes in 2026, while soybean and sunflower oil consumption is expected to decline by a combined 400,000 tonnes, it said.

January data reflects this shift, with India's palm oil imports rising to a 4-month high and soyoil imports falling to an 11-month low, it pointed out.

The trend in February shows that global vegetable oil prices have remained well supported, "underpinned by optimism surrounding US biofuel policy and firmer crude oil prices amid escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran."

The US soyoil recently witnessed a price rally and the sustained strength in US soyoil prices is likely to continue providing support to palm oil prices.

However, the upside potential in palm oil prices may be partially capped by rising soybean crushing, particularly in China, said the report. "The country (China) became a net exporter of soybean oil for the first time in 2025 and is expected to maintain this position in 2026, with exports projected around 850,000 tonnes. India accounted for nearly half of China's soybean oil exports last year."  End

Reported by Abhijit Doshi

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

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