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Informist, Wednesday, Feb. 25, 2026

 

--ISMA cuts 2025-26 gross sugar output to 32.4 mln tn vs 34.4 mln tn earlier 

--CONTEXT: ISMA releases 3rd advance estimate for 2025-26 (Oct-Sept) 

--ISMA sees 2025-26 gross sugar output at 32.4 mln tn vs 29.6 mln tn last yr 

--ISMA cuts 2025-26 net sugar output to 29.3 mln tn vs 30.95 mln earlier 

--ISMA sees 2025-26 net sugar output at 29.3 mln tn vs 26.1 mln tn last yr 

--ISMA sees 3.1 mln tn sugar diversion for ethanol output in 2025-26 

--ISMA sees closing stock for 2025-26 (Oct-Sept) at 5.3 mln tn 

--ISMA sees Maharashtra's sugar output at 10.6 mln tn in year to Sept 

--ISMA sees Uttar Pradesh's sugar output at 9.3 mln tn in year to Sept 

--ISMA sees Karnataka's sugar output at 4.8 mln tn in year to Sept 

 

MUMBAI – The Indian Sugar Mills & Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association has cut its gross sugar production estimate for the 2025-26 (Oct-Sept) sugar season by 2 million tonnes. In its third advanced estimate for the current season, the association projected the gross sugar output at 32.4 million tonnes, up by over 9% from a year ago. The association had earlier estimated gross sugar production in 2025-26 at 34.4 million tonnes. Gross sugar output is estimated before sucrose diversion for ethanol production.

 

The net sugar output for the season is estimated at 29.3 million tonnes, down from the earlier estimate of 30.95 million tonnes. Last year, the net sugar output was 26.1 million tonnes. Net sugar output is the total quantity of sugar produced by mills after subtracting the volume of sugarcane juice or molasses diverted to produce ethanol. 

 

ISMA expects 3.1 million tonnes of sugar to be diverted for ethanol production in 2025-26. The sugar diversion has been estimated based on state-wise ethanol supply allocations and the expected cane crushing during the balance season, the association said. 

 

ISMA said it procured high-resolution satellite imagery in early February 2026 to assess the status of the sugarcane crop. The association estimated the sugarcane yield in Uttar Pradesh to be lower than earlier projections, primarily due to the ongoing varietal replacement programme, which has temporarily reduced productivity. However, sugar recovery in the state has been reported to be higher than last season. Net sugar output in Uttar Pradesh is expected to be 9.3 million tonnes during the season, ISMA said.

 

In major sugarcane-growing regions of Maharashtra and Karnataka, yields per unit area are estimated to be lower than initially expected, despite reasonable sugar recovery levels. "This shortfall in yield has been linked to the early onset of flowering in sugarcane, which began across many cane-growing regions from January onwards rather than being confined to only traditional river belts," according to the association. Net sugar output in Maharashtra is seen at 10.6 million tonnes and in Karnataka at 4.8 million tonnes in the current season. 

 

"Early flowering — often triggered by abnormal weather patterns, including excess rainfall during key growth phases — accelerates cane maturity and reduces biomass accumulation, resulting in lighter, less productive stalks. Additionally, a higher crush rate this year shortened the effective harvesting window, reducing field retention time and limiting late-stage biomass accumulation," the association said.

 

The association expects closing stocks to be 5.3 million tonnes in 2025-26. 

 

Out of the total quantity allocated by the government for exports, the association has estimated exports of 700,000 tonnes of sugar. The Centre allowed the export of an additional 500,000 tonnes of sugar, over and above the earlier 1.5 million-tonne quota in 2025-26. Though the additional quota will only be distributed to willing mills on a pro-rata basis, mills must ship at least 70% of the assigned quota by Jun. 30, or bear penalties. Under the previous quota, mills could ship sugar till Sept. 30. 

 

Meanwhile, sugarcane planting for the 2026-27 season has reportedly improved in Maharashtra and Karnataka. As a result, the 2026-27 crushing season appears to be promising, ISMA said. The opening stock for 2026-27 is expected to be more than adequate, it said.  End

 

Reported by Taniva Singha Roy

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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