Brokerage View
See COMEX gold $6,000/oz in 12 mos; INR 185,000/10 gm on MCX - Motilal Oswal
This story was originally published at 14:24 IST on 24 February 2026
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MUMBAI - Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. sees gold prices settling around $6,000 per ounce on COMEX in 12 months as fiscal stress, moderate easing, and demand from central banks persist. On the domestic front, it sees prices at INR 185,000 per 10 grams in 12 months, assuming the rupee at 91 against the dollar, the brokerage said in a report titled 'Precious Metals Quarterly'. It assumes these forecasts as a base case scenario.
"Gold's current advance reflects a structural repricing rather than late-cycle exuberance. With real yields structurally capped, supply growth constrained, & geopolitical fragmentation rooted, corrections are likely to be consolidative rather than trend-breaking," it said. "We continue to maintain buy on dips stance from medium to long-term perspective," the brokerage added in the report released Monday.
In a bull case scenario, escalating debt monetisation or multi-theatre geopolitical shocks could push gold towards $7,500 per ounce in 24 to 36 months, which equates to INR 230,000 on the domestic front, assuming the rupee at 91 against the dollar, it said. In an extreme tail scenario, "aggressive monetary financing and reserve realignment could justify target above $8,000+ valuations over the longer horizon; over 36 month's perspective," the brokerage added.
At 1259 IST, the April gold contract on the COMEX was 0.6% lower at $5,195.3 per ounce and the same month contract on the MCX was at INR 160,916 per 10 grams, down 0.4% from the previous close.
The implied volatility for gold is above 20-25%, hence staggered approach of investment and maintaining caution amidst the risk of profit booking or possible headwinds is justified, Motilal Oswal said. Strong base for the above mentioned target is at $4,000-$4,200 per ounce on COMEX and INR 123,000-INR 130,000 per 10 grams on domestic front, it added. End
US$1 = INR 90.96
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Reported by Ashutosh Pati
Edited by Vandana Hingorani
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