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Informist, Monday, Feb. 23, 2026

 

MUMBAI – Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for crude oil prices in the fourth quarter of 2026 by $6 per barrel, citing lower inventories from countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The bank now expects Brent crude oil prices to average $60 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude to average $56 per barrel in Oct-Dec, even though it does not expect any Iran-related supply disruptions and maintains its surplus expectation for the year.

 

In 2026, Goldman Sachs sees Brent crude oil prices averaging $64 per barrel, up from $56 earlier, and WTI crude at $60 per barrel, up from $52 earlier. The fall in prices towards the last quarter is because of a "gradual fading of our $6 risk premium estimate assuming that geopolitical tensions ease" and "a $5 decline in the fair value price as OECD stocks rise," it said in a report.

 

The bank said an upside risk to its forecast was a potential 1 million-barrel-per-day supply disruption, corresponding to half of Iran's crude oil exports for 12 months, that could boost oil prices by $8 per barrel. "The economic cost from the rise in energy prices in a hypothetical full and sustained Strait of Hormuz closure suggests such a closure is a tail scenario," it added.

 

Meanwhile, potential relief in sanctions on Iran or Russia would accelerate landed stock builds, and unlock higher supply in the longer term, posing a $5-$8 per barrel downside to oil prices in Oct-Dec.

 

It has maintained its surplus expectations for the year at 2.3 million barrels per day, assuming no major supply disruptions and no peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The bank said only 19% of the global inventory builds this year will materialise in OECD commercial stocks, lower than its previous projection of 27%, "as we now think that 25% of the surplus shows up as Russia/Iran crude building up at sea," it said. Goldman Sachs also expects the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies to gradually raise production in the second quarter of 2026.

 

In 2027, the bank expects Brent crude oil prices to average $65 per barrel and rise to $70 per barrel by December 2027, driven by solid demand and slowing supply growth. Similarly, it expects WTI crude prices to average $61 per barrel next year, before rising to $66 per barrel by year-end. "Our long-run 2030 Brent/WTI forecast of $75/71 (per barrel) remains above the forwards as we expect ongoing demand growth following years of low long-cycle investment," it said.

 

At 2012 IST, the most-active May contract of Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange was up 0.9% at $71.92 per barrel. The most-active April contract of WTI crude on NYMEX was 1.0% higher at $67.17 per barrel.  End

 

US$1 = INR 90.88

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Reported by Ashutosh Pati

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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