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Informist, Friday, Feb. 20, 2026

 

By Reshma Ravi

 

MUMBAI – Futures contacts of gold and silver rose on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India and the COMEX on Friday amid geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, which raised the safe-haven demand for the precious metals. However, gains are likely to be capped as stronger-than-expected US economic data lowered expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve.  

 

At 1559 IST, the most-active April GOLD contract on the MCX was up 1% at INR 156,398 per 10 grams. The most-active April contract on the COMEX was up 1% at $5,049.3 per ounce. The most-active March SILVER contract on the MCX was up 4% at INR 250,373 per kilogram, and the same-month contract on the COMEX was up 4% at $80.61 per ounce.

 

"Currently, gold has rebounded above $5,020/oz ($5,020 per ounce), while silver has surged past $81/oz as markets continue to weigh geopolitical risks against evolving Federal Reserve policy expectations," Kaynat Chainwala, assistant vice president at Kotak Securities, said in a note. 

 

Precious metals rose due to escalating geopolitical tensions, which are keeping markets on edge. On Thursday, US President Donald Trump said the world will find out "over the next, probably, 10 days" whether the US will reach a deal with Iran or take military action, BBC reported. In the first meeting of his Board of Peace in Washington DC, Trump addressed talks with Iran over its nuclear programme. "We have to make a meaningful deal otherwise bad things happen." In recent days, the US has increased its military presence in West Asia, even as progress was reported in talks between US and Iran negotiators in Switzerland, the report said.

 

However, gains in precious metals are likely to be capped due to lower expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. "...strong dollar and better than expected US economic numbers from US raised the doubts over immediate rate cut from the US Federal Reserve," ICICI Direct said in a report. At 1601 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the greenback against a basket of six currencies, was up 0.1% at 97.96. A strong dollar makes commodities priced in the currency less appealing to those holding other currencies, thereby denting demand.

 

On Thursday, data released by the US Labor Department showed initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 23,000 to a seasonally adjusted 206,000 in the week ended Saturday. Moreover, minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's meeting held in January indicated an uncertain rate cut path. Several participants were considering rate hike if inflation stayed high, and other favouring additional cuts if inflation fell as anticipated. According to the CME FedWatch tool, 46.9% traders are now pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June, down from 51.2% a week ago.

 

Outlook for the rest of the session:

--MCX gold seen at INR 154,000–INR 158,000 per 10 grams

--COMEX gold seen at $5,000.0–$5,100.0 an ounce

--MCX silver seen at INR 245,000-INR 254,000 per kg

--COMEX silver seen at $78.00-$82.50 an ounce

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 90.98

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Vandana Hingorani

 

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